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Hurricane Erin

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The ocean temps here are definitely fantastic hurricane fuel.

According to this morning's discussion, Erin has more time today to ingest that fuel before some shear shows up. Its already large wind field is going to keep on growing, which makes me really glad for the evacuation orders on Hatteras--the surge this storm will cause with that wind field is no joke.

Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and symmetry, and it seems likely that Erin will strengthen today. The intensification is likely to end by tonight due to some increase in shear and a broadening of the inner core wind field. Slow weakening seems likely beginning Tuesday, but it should be emphasized that Erin is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the week. The NHC intensity forecast is above the models in the short term, but falls near the middle of the guidance after that.

Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
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(edited to shrink down the image size some once I saw how huge it was on desktop...)
 
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Some interesting explosive looking convection bursts with Erin. Blew one up on the SE eyewall, and whipped it around so fast it slung moisture across and occluded the eye. Time sensitive.

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wx_guy said:
The storm WILL remain offshore, but indirect impacts to the Outer Banks are likely as the storm is growing huge.


View attachment 46148
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Yeah, think those evacuations were the right call. Coastal flooding is easy to underestimate but as dangerous as any other flooding hazard.
 
This is one seriously large, seriously churning storm. Really dynamic convection for one this powerful - usually they smooth out more than this, in my experience. The wind field is still expanding - may try to step that eye up even larger too. A fish for the most part it appears so far, but an interesting one to watch.

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Size perspective from the mid-level WV:

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It's so cool to see gravity waves emanating out of Erin.
 

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