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Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

Kory said:
The *majority* of Florida has dodged yet another bullet (I say this because Michael certainty wasn't a dodged bullet, but the relative disaster impacts to populated areas were quite limited compared to the density of Central and South Florida).

Coastal parts of the Carolinas will definitely be dealing with a solid hurricane as landfall somewhere on the Outer Banks looks very likely, but we should avoid a major hurricane landfall.
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2026

Florida definitely dodged a bullet. Unfortunately the Bamahas didn't. Hopefully this stays offshore and the projected speed up minimalizes future impacts.
 
118mph surface winds picked up from latest recon dropsonde. Also an increase in fight level winds on the west side.

2029

With the slow drop in pressure I'd wager we'll be up to category 3 again by the next outlook.
 
Yeah I think that fits with what we're seeing qualitatively in terms of its appearance looking more organized. It's certainly still got plenty of warm water to work with.
 
One thing to keep in mind is that not only have the peak winds increased again (somewhat substantially), but the wind-field has continued to broaden. This morning it was tough to find wind velocities over 85-90mph. Now there are huge swaths of 105+ mph velocities and peak winds in excess of 120 mph. The area of hurricane force winds looks a good bit larger to me than it did 12 hours ago.

I think the recent recon data and SFMR probably support upgrading Dorian to a minimal Cat 3. Hard to believe he has regained major status, but it does appear that way. Wouldn't be shocked, however if the NHC plays this a little conservatively and waits for more data before upgrading. But, with the recent west shift in the ECMWF and other models they may roll with it since the chance of landfall has also increased, so they need to warn people of the increased danger.

I just hope Dorian doesn't go nuts tonight and make a run for those sub-950 pressures like I mentioned this AM.
 
Evan said:
One thing to keep in mind is that not only have the peak winds increased again (somewhat substantially), but the wind-field has continued to broaden. This morning it was tough to find wind velocities over 85-90mph. Now there are huge swaths of 105+ mph velocities and peak winds in excess of 120 mph. The area of hurricane force winds looks a good bit larger to me than it did 12 hours ago.

I think the recent recon data and SFMR probably support upgrading Dorian to a minimal Cat 3. Hard to believe he has regained major status, but it does appear that way. Wouldn't be shocked, however if the NHC plays this a little conservatively and waits for more data before upgrading. But, with the recent west shift in the ECMWF and other models they may roll with it since the chance of landfall has also increased, so they need to warn people of the increased danger.

I just hope Dorian doesn't go nuts tonight and make a run for those sub-950 pressures like I mentioned this AM.
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Pressure down to 955 mb. It's been deepening pretty steadily now.
 
Again, rather underwhelming wind reports so far from the coastline. We’ll need to see if actual surface winds match extrapolated wind reports. Lots of sub tropical storm force winds.
 
Six separate tornado warnings in NC/SC with at least one confirmed large tornado that crossed US-17 near Carolina Shores. There was another in North Myrtle Beach that someone caught video of. Looks like a pretty substantial tornado.

 
I should have used an SRV scan (vs base reflectivity). And the Eastern wall may be trying to re-establish itself on the last few scans.

2031
 
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