Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

[Kory]

Haven't heard of this one......

German model. Did quite well with Barry but is wiffing this one pretty badly.

 

[Mike S]

Josh is a good follow - as long as he has service

 

[Richardjacks]

Pressure down to 909!!

 

[Kory]

Katrina’s record of 902 mb might be in jeopardy.

 

[Evan]

I think it’s safe to officially say now Florida is off the hook from a direct landfall despite proclamations otherwise. There’s been some shifts West, but unless you’re going to tell me the ridge is not going to weaken at all, I don’t see it getting west far enough. Of course there will be some impacts to cause headaches, but I know I wouldn’t be panicking anymore.

I disagreed last time when you said this, and as we've seen there has been a considerable shift back West.

We've rarely had a rapidly strengthening hurricane like this in this area with all our hopes resting on a stall and quick northern turn.

If you want to think the models have got it nailed down then I have no problem with that, but I do think it is dangerous because this is a rather rare and unique situation. I'm not saying Dorian is going to continue to plow to the west and make a Florida landfall, but we only need small track errors to put Dorian very close to having his eyewall brushing the Florida peninsula.

I sure as heck wouldn't bet that Florida is off the hook. Particularly since you don't even need a landfall from a Cat 5 to have significant damage.

I will be shocked if the NHC doesn't soon begin to start aggressive warnings for portions of Florida, and I will be equally shocked if Florida doesn't evacuate a significant number of areas. They don't have a choice at this point. The risk is too considerable to ignore.

 

[Evan]

Katrina’s record of 902 mb might be in jeopardy.

Seems likely.

 

[Lori]

Gusts up to 220.... praying for the Bahamas and for that north turn...
The Dorian name will no doubt be retired!

 

[Evan]

Katrina’s record of 902 mb might be in jeopardy.

Katrina may luck out since Dorian is about to be over land for a bit. I don't know if recon will continue to take observations while Dorian is landfalling on Great Abaco.

I wonder if being a small island makes any difference to the decision for recon to continue or not.

I guess it will come down to whether or not Dorian weakens from his interaction with land. He could ingest a slug of drier air, but that island is pretty small and has fairly dense foliage.

I won't be shocked if Dorian continues to strengthen after landfall.

 

[Lori]

You can see the eye on the Miami radar!!

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Katrina may luck out since Dorian is about to be over land for a bit. I don't know if recon will continue to take observations while Dorian is landfalling on Great Abaco.

I wonder if being a small island makes any difference to the decision for recon to continue or not.

I guess it will come down to whether or not Dorian weakens from his interaction with land. He could ingest a slug of drier air, but that island is pretty small and has fairly dense foliage.

I won't be shocked if Dorian continues to strengthen after landfall.

I actual think it could still intensify even crossing the island based on the fact the island being small, but more so since it's a very flat island with vegetation rich in moisture. This is just a hypothesis on my part, but I don't think we've seen the lowest pressure yet. We shall see though.

 

[Lori]

I actual think it could still intensify even crossing the island based on the fact the island being small, but more so since it's a very flat island with vegetation rich in moisture. This is just a hypothesis on my part, but I don't think we've seen the lowest pressure yet. We shall see though.

I can’t imagine riding this monster out on that island!! Can you imagine what the pressure is doing to ears?
My heart is really breaking for those poor people!!

 

[Kory]

 

[Evan]

Gusts up to 220.... praying for the Bahamas and for that north turn...
The Dorian name will no doubt be retired!

I believe Dorian has tied the Labor Day '35 hurricane for strongest landfalling hurricane in Atlantic basin history.

I'm actually rather concerned for some of the hurricane chasers that are intercepting Dorian. I don't know if they quite expected 185 sustained, 25ft surge, and 220 gusts.

The sustained winds are basically equivalent to a strong EF-4 tornado while the gusts are firmly in EF-5 territory. And Grand Abaco will experience those winds for a heck of a lot longer than someone would in a tornado.

The devastation is going to be nauseating to see.

If people remember what Irma did to Barbuda with 185mph winds...same thing is going to happen in the Abacos.

 

[Kory]

I can’t imagine riding this monster out on that island!! Can you imagine what the pressure is doing to ears?
My heart is really breaking for those poor people!!

I’ve been through my fair share of hurricanes and in the eyewall of some weaker storms. I cannot imagine a strengthening category 5. Strengthening storms are ALWAYS worse than weakening ones of the same strength. Not sure that’s anecdotal but that’s how it seems to me.

The most helpless feeling is sheltering and hearing things crash into the house, trees cracking and falling. Oh and the noises your house makes under the stress of the wind.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Marsh Habour, and Elbow Clay are in process of getting wiped off the map. That’s the side of the island I would have not built civilization on, but that’s where it all is!

 

[majorhurricane1703]

I’ve been through my fair share of hurricanes and in the eyewall of some weaker storms. I cannot imagine a strengthening category 5. Strengthening storms are ALWAYS worse than weakening ones of the same strength. Not sure that’s anecdotal but that’s how it seems to me.

The most helpless feeling is sheltering and hearing things crash into the house, trees cracking and falling. Oh and the noises your house makes under the stress of the wind.

You definitely feel for these people. The sad part about it for them is that it's not like it's going to be over in a hour or two. It's going to be going on and on for hours on end. You really worry if it will still be an island after this.

 

[Lori]

Thinking about Josh Morgerman, he’s ridden out many monsters all over the world but I’m worried that by the grace of God, he makes it out of this.

 

[Kory]

 

[Kory]

 

[Lori]

Reports that the communication infrastructure is being damaged, not sure how much longer we will know of conditions in the Bahamas!!
Just keep praying!!