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Hurricane Delta (1 Viewer)


AL_ham_op

Member
Messages
73
Location
Clay, AL
What's causing this sharp westward shift? Kind of surprising to see AL taking this so seriously given how far away it has shifted from us.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,716
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Models continue to shift west this morning.

What did Lake Charles do to piss mother nature off so bad?
Lake Charles will be on the weak side of a hurricane that will be getting increasing shear from the SW. Lafayette/Baton Rouge and points south will likely see one of their bigger hits in a long time. Probably since Andrew in 1992. It’s rare to have a NNE moving storm impact Louisiana.
 

Jacob

Member
Messages
619
Location
Moody, AL
Lake Charles will be on the weak side of a hurricane that will be getting increasing shear from the SW. Lafayette/Baton Rouge and points south will likely see one of their bigger hits in a long time. Probably since Andrew in 1992. It’s rare to have a NNE moving storm impact Louisiana.

Based on current guidance, I agree with you. My post was more that the trend has been going west for the last 24-36 hours, inching closer to Lake Charles. For Lake Charles sake, hopefully it does take that easterly route.
 

barcncpt44

Member
Messages
217
Location
Anniston, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The latest track for Delta is taking it close to Lake Charles. This is not good for them since many buildings have blue tarps on them.
 
Messages
214
Location
Louisiana
Latest 10 AM Advisory.

Winds up to 105 MPH, will likely be either a strong Cat2 or lower end Cat3 at landfall.

WTNT31 KNHC 081453
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
High Island to Sabine Pass.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High
Island to Sabine Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the
north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico today, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105
mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again
by tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after
the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
2020 Supporter
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,124
Location
Huntsville, AL
Looks like a visible eye might be forming, we'll have to see if it remains unoccludedCOD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.01.20201008.152922-over=map-bars=.gif
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
2020 Supporter
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,124
Location
Huntsville, AL
It appears Delta has strengthened a bit over the past few hours. Still waiting on dropsonde data but SFMR was around 90 knots and MSLP ~954mb.

EDIT: dropsonde reading 959mb
 
Last edited:
Messages
214
Location
Louisiana
Winds up to 120 and pressure down to 955mb

WTNT31 KNHC 090235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north is forecast overnight, followed by a north-northeastward
motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight additional
strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening is expected to
begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with
rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta's northwestern eyewall
recently reported a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind
gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant
wave height just over 29 feet (almost 9 meters).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late
tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Messages
214
Location
Louisiana
Winds down to 115mph in 10 AM Advisory

WTNT31 KNHC 091448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...CENTER OF DELTA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 93.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this afternoon, followed by a northeastward
motion during the day Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta should make landfall along the coast of southwestern
Louisiana later this afternoon or this evening, and then move across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected before landfall,
with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). NOAA buoy 42019 located west of the center of Delta
recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind
gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
beginning within this area in the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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