Hurricane Delta

[KoD]

Tropical depression twenty-six has become better organized and is now Tropical Storm Delta. This system is south of Cuba, near jamaica and is a potential threat to western Cuba, Yucatan and the US gulf coast. Current forecast has the storm venturing northwestward with NHC predicting upwards of 105mph windspeeds before landfall somewhere between LA and FL panhandle. Obviously there's a lot of time and territory to cover but this bears watching.

 

[MattW]

On Facebook, I half-jokingly asked what would happen if a Greek-letter storm had to be retired. I DID NOT MEAN FOR NATURE TO TAKE THAT AS A CHALLENGE!

 

[Kory]

Rapid intensification probabilities are high on this one. It already has that “look” and will have about 60 hours of very low shear and boiling water.

Interaction with Gamma will sling shot it NW into the Central Gulf where some cooler water from recent cold front passages will limit strengthening. Still a ways to go with this one but I suspect a landfalling hurricane somewhere between Mobile and Lake Charles.

 

[Kory]

Holy cow. Recon finds pressure 985mb! Rapid intensification has commenced.

 

[WesL]

5:00pm Advisory -
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest should occur this evening. A faster northwestward
motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest
of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday
afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected
to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[warneagle]

NHC is forecasting Delta to become a major hurricane by early Wednesday morning.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

960mb 110mph sustained right now. Cat 5 is doable before the Yucatan.

 

[Kory]

960mb 110mph sustained right now. Cat 5 is doable before the Yucatan.

Yep, SHIPS shows a 38% chance of cat 5 intensity.

 

[TornadoFan]

Pressure down to 957 as of the latest pass.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kory]

HOLY COW.

 

[warneagle]

Put this in the dictionary next to "ominous".

 

[KoD]

SW eyewall, 113 knots / 130mph

 

[Jacob]

I'll be surprised if we don't have a Cat 5 within the next 12 hours or so.

 

[Kory]

Western Caribbean doing Western Caribbean things. There’s a reason this part of the basin holds so many records.

 

[warneagle]

Delta has some distinctly Wilma-like vibes to it (aside from the forecast track). Little earlier in the season but Wilma exploded in almost the same location.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TornadoFan]

And Delta is now a category 3.