Severe WX December 16-17 2019 Severe Weather Outbreak

[TornadoFan]

Tornado emergency for Alexandria.

 

[JayF]

the NWS has said that Alexandria area is under an emergency situation with a confirmed Large destructive Tornado is on the ground.

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[Tennie]

Looks like the Alexandria circulation is starting to weaken. Hopefully it actually does.

 

[South AL Wx]

Mesoscale Discussion 2207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

Areas affected...northern Rapides Parish in central Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch

​

700​

...

Valid 161839Z - 161915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

SUMMARY...Based on recent radar and environmental data, a strong to
potentially intense tornado with potential peak winds of 110 to 155
mph (EF1-EF3) is likely ongoing and tracking towards Alexandria, LA.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar signatures from KPOE as of 1832z reveal a
long track tornadic supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree
rotational velocity between 61 and 70 kt. A tornadic debris
signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. These
signatures are occurring in an environment characterized by STP
between 4 and 5. Previous signatures within similar environments
produced tornado-damage-estimated wind speeds from 110 to 155 mph
and confidence is high for likely strong to potentially intense
tornado. A tornado is ongoing and may continue based on the
rotational velocity continuity and the storm moving within a
favorable downstream environment.
​

​

 

[JayF]

The NWS SPC has changed the Outlook to include a Moderate Section for Louisiana and Mississippi.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Looks like the Alexandria storm is occluding (for now). The convection has gotten messy for that one.

 

[andyhb]

Alexandria tornado is still in progress, crossing the interstate.

 

[TornadoFan]

Alexandria storm looks like it's becoming more linear.

 

[WesL]

From the Port Gibson, MS storm earlier - Anyone know who the chaser is?

 

[bwalk]

Once Alexandria cell gets past Libuse it will be in some rural, sparsely populated areas. The cell has become more loosely organized for now. Hopefully, it stays that way.

 

[mbrewer]

From the Port Gibson, MS storm earlier - Anyone know who the chaser is?

That's Brandon Clement.

 

[JayF]

don't forget to spread the list of Shelters around to those who may need it. And if there are updates you can add, please do so. Make sure you look at the list before you post to ensure we do not have duplicates.

List of Shelters

Can y’all help me get a list comprised of shelters in the areas of storms occurring and forecasted for those in mobile homes or without a place to shelter underground? Please post them!

talkweather.com

 

[Tennie]

It looks like the cells coming out of Alexandria and Simmesport, LA, could likely collide just west of Natchez, MS.

 

[Equus]

18z LCH observed. There is an amazing EML on some of these soundings today. It's December on the Gulf Coast



18z LIX

 

[JayF]

Looks like the storm out of Alexandria is starting to rebuild and strengthen. Keep an eye on it.

 

[Equus]

FWIW, new NAM run, 00z near Columbus MS... might have an issue with lots of tornadoes in a QLCS, but NAM remains way more aggressive than many other models

 

[JayF]

FWIW, new NAM run, 00z near Columbus MS... might have an issue with lots of tornadoes in a QLCS, but NAM remains way more aggressive than many other models

View attachment 2188

I think it is going to be somewhere between GFS and NAM. GFS is way to relaxed in my opinion. especially from what we have already seen today.

 

[Equus]

Yeah for sure, GFS is sleeping on it and NAM is probably overdoing it.

 

[Equus]

Watch going out soon for northern MS for the semi-linear cluster from Monroe to about Oxford.