Severe WX December 16-17 2019 Severe Weather Outbreak

[JayF]

Looking at the model data I am thinking that NE Mississippi, Central to North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee are the highest chances for severe weather come Monday. IF the models are correct and I realize we are 5 days out, the Chattanooga area is going to be hardest hit. Let's discuss the upcoming weather pattern.

 

[gangstonc]

To me, it looks like the timing isn't right as far as the dynamics and instability.

 

[MichelleH]

I hope not. People are so busy with holiday stuff right now and we haven't had an event in a while, so some may have let their guard down.

 

[akt1985]

Wasn’t December 16th also the same date as the south Tuscaloosa tornado back in 2000?

 

[JayF]

Wasn’t December 16th also the same date as the south Tuscaloosa tornado back in 2000?

You would be correct. Unfortunately with it now being 4 days out, the NWS has increased the 15% area.

Alabama is second only to Texas with 39 Christmas week (December 23-27) tornadoes since 1950. The strongest Alabama tornado on record in December was the Tuscaloosa F4 on 12/16/2000. This tornado was responsible for 11 fatalities and 144 injuries. This tornado was caught live on a tower camera during James Spann’s coverage.

This is the link where that information came from.

December Tornado History in Alabama

With the threat of severe weather tomorrow (Wednesday 12/23/15) it is important to remember that tornadoes can and do happen in our part of the country this time of the year! According to the Natio…

whnt.com

 

[warneagle]

To me, it looks like the timing isn't right as far as the dynamics and instability.

Yeah the window where the best shear and best instability overlap is pretty small (not to mention some potential VBV that’s evident on some of the forecast soundings and storm mode issues).

 

[Equus]

We're in NAM range now 84h out, and getting a sliver of overlap as the best shear moves out that it still looks like we could briefly have some issues. Biggest threat here so far this fall season though I think.

 

[WesL]

Admin Note: I edited the title so it would be easier to search down the road.

 

[Equus]

18Z NAM still pretty spicy for central AL, though VBV still present

 

[Richardjacks]

18Z NAM still pretty spicy for central AL, though VBV still present

In looking at the NAM, I am bit surpised at not only how far north the +250 j/k reaches but also how far east, it isn't as "skinny" or narrow as typically seen in these type setups.

 

[Equus]

I guess we get to see in the short term how much instability we DO manage to get, always a big question in these events

 

[Kory]

I’m not sure we’ll have enough forcing to get any convection across the open warm sector. We’ll be relying on the cold front to spark convection and I’m not sure that will lead to a more significant threat.

 

[Equus]

Probably contaminated, but NAM still pretty hyped up; always fun to play the classic find-the-PDS-TOR-sounding. SW of Tuscaloosa

 

[Richardjacks]

Probably contaminated, but NAM still pretty hyped up; always fun to play the classic find-the-PDS-TOR-sounding. SW of Tuscaloosa

The NAM is also a bit slower than the GFS...by at least a couple of hours, which give more time for instability to move northward, causing a larger and expanding warm sector...but also storm mode may be a bit messy.

 

[Equus]

Yeah it's increasingly a good bit off from the GFS timing-wise. GFS still not super convinced everything lines up right; very interested in seeing the CAMs/other regionals have to say as we get closer.

 

[Lori]

Wasn’t December 16th also the same date as the south Tuscaloosa tornado back in 2000?

I was waiting to see if anyone saw the date!!

 

[Equus]

Hard to believe it's been nineteen years.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I remember that one. Lived in Starkville, MS at the time. Depending on the winter, we could have tornadoes, snow, or ice storms in December.

The end of November usually signaled the beginning of severe weather season. We could go from below zero to tornadoes anytime during December, January, and February.

 

[MichelleH]

I remember watching that one live on ABC 33/40's tower cam. I *think* it was the first live tornado they caught on camera.

 

[Equus]

I was just ten but I remember that day clearly... and the dusting of snow immediately thereafter.