Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[TH2002]

Not enough info for me to comment one way or another on that yet.

Yeah you're probably right, we shouldn't try to play damage surveyor especially when we are only sparingly getting information from a 100+ mile track. Of course there still is a certain someone who branded the Mayfield tornado a low end EF4...

 

[Evan]

Partial bid documents along with some mechanical drawings and schedules:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bidnet.com/bneattachments%3F/489406570.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi5y8vD3tz0AhXbZzABHcnqDG0QFnoECCUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2oJl4Ra24FqsJGctmv0f7K

Presuming the GC did their job correctly, this should be a well-constructed institutional building. Looks to be around 45,000 sq ft. Reputable architect, mechanical contractor, and GC, and it obviously went through the UK bid, design, and review process which is unquestionably going to be intense considering it's an educational institution.

Educational institutions take the design and construction of their buildings very seriously -- I know this from experience. Even moreso for major state-level educational systems.

Truly sad situation.

 

[akt1985]

Latest press conference from Kentucky Governor Andy Beshar. He's trying not to cry.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[buckeye05]

Well Paducah will be responsible for a good chunk of the track as well.

NWS Paducah has a great survey team. Intuitive, objective, and detail oriented. That’s how you do it. Curious to see what they find.

 

[TH2002]

Almost half of the Dollar General was completely reduced to its slab as well.

 

[OHWX97]

Unwarned tornado near Robins AFB, GA moments ago.

.

 

[Clancy]

Unwarned tornado near Robins AFB, GA moments ago.
View attachment 10946
.

Related SPC MD issued.

 

[Evan]

Yeah you're probably right, we shouldn't try to play damage surveyor especially when we are only sparingly getting information from a 100+ mile track. Of course there still is a certain someone who branded the Mayfield tornado a low end EF4...

Bottom line, it's highly improbable we'll see a dearth of well-constructed DIs in the path of this tornado as has sometimes been at issue in other violent tornadoes. If it reached EF-5 intensity for any reasonable period of time it is likely (but not guaranteed) the tornado hit a structure capable of supporting an EF-5 rating.

In other words, I don't think this is going to be one where people quibble over anchor bolt spacing on one small house in the middle of nowhere and whether it was sufficient or not. There should be plenty of well-built DIs to look at, and if this tornado reached EF-5 intensity along its path, it will be identified.

 

[akt1985]

 

[locomusic01]

BTW, the state of Kentucky has set up a relief fund that would probably be a good option for anyone who wants to donate:

Team Western Kentucky Tornado Relief Fund

 

[TH2002]

Bottom line, it's highly improbable we'll see a dearth of well-constructed DIs in the path of this tornado as has sometimes been at issue in other violent tornadoes. If it reached EF-5 intensity for any reasonable period of time it is likely (but not guaranteed) the tornado hit a structure capable of supporting an EF-5 rating.

In other words, I don't think this is going to be one where people quibble over anchor bolt spacing on one small house in the middle of nowhere and whether it was sufficient or not. There should be plenty of well-built DIs to look at, and if this tornado reached EF-5 intensity along its path, it will be identified.

I agree and I am 100% confident the tornado did reach EF5 strength at some point - I'm just trying to say that I don't feel like arguing with anyone over this tornado's rating, at least not until more information is available.

 

[vanni9283]

I agree and I am 100% confident the tornado did reach EF5 strength at some point - I'm just trying to say that I don't feel like arguing with anyone over this tornado's rating, at least not until more information is available.

However there are other indicators beyond homes and buildings that also indicate how violent this tornado actually was.

 

[buckeye05]

Bottom line, it's highly improbable we'll see a dearth of well-constructed DIs in the path of this tornado as has sometimes been at issue in other violent tornadoes. If it reached EF-5 intensity for any reasonable period of time it is likely (but not guaranteed) the tornado hit a structure capable of supporting an EF-5 rating.

In other words, I don't think this is going to be one where people quibble over anchor bolt spacing on one small house in the middle of nowhere and whether it was sufficient or not. There should be plenty of well-built DIs to look at, and if this tornado reached EF-5 intensity along its path, it will be identified.

I’d agree except for the fact that NWS Louisville is surveying a large segment of the path. They tend to play it too conservative even if construction is solid. Never underestimate the lengths a more conservative survey team will go to to avoid applying a higher-end. I’ve made the mistake of assuming that “if there’s EF5 damage, they’ll rate it as such” (looking at you NWS Jackson, and your survey of the Bassfield tornado).

 

[TH2002]

However there are other indicators beyond homes and buildings that also indicate how violent this tornado actually was.

I am fully aware of the scouring, debarking and other extreme contextual damage (water tower in Mayfield and train cars in Earlington for example) this tornado caused. I have no doubts it was a violent tornado but like I said I'm not going to argue with anyone at this stage over whether it was an EF4 or EF5.

 

[locomusic01]

 

[OHWX97]

 

[warneagle]

Unwarned tornado near Robins AFB, GA moments ago.
View attachment 10946
.

Yikes, where was that in relation to the radar? My parents live in Warner Robins.

 

[OHWX97]

Yikes, where was that in relation to the radar? My parents live in Warner Robins.

It was well to their east.

 

[Evan]

I’d agree except for the fact that NWS Louisville is surveying a large segment of the path. They tend to play it too conservative even if construction is solid. Never underestimate the lengths a more conservative survey team will go to to avoid applying a higher-end. I’ve made the mistake of assuming that “if there’s EF5 damage, they’ll rate it as such” (looking at you NWS Jackson, and your survey of the Bassfield tornado).

Well, it depends. Are they bringing in Tim Marshall?