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Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

buckeye05 said:
Not enough info for me to comment one way or another on that yet.
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Yeah you're probably right, we shouldn't try to play damage surveyor especially when we are only sparingly getting information from a 100+ mile track. Of course there still is a certain someone who branded the Mayfield tornado a low end EF4...
 
Partial bid documents along with some mechanical drawings and schedules:


Presuming the GC did their job correctly, this should be a well-constructed institutional building. Looks to be around 45,000 sq ft. Reputable architect, mechanical contractor, and GC, and it obviously went through the UK bid, design, and review process which is unquestionably going to be intense considering it's an educational institution.

Educational institutions take the design and construction of their buildings very seriously -- I know this from experience. Even moreso for major state-level educational systems.

Truly sad situation.
 
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TH2002 said:
Yeah you're probably right, we shouldn't try to play damage surveyor especially when we are only sparingly getting information from a 100+ mile track. Of course there still is a certain someone who branded the Mayfield tornado a low end EF4...
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Bottom line, it's highly improbable we'll see a dearth of well-constructed DIs in the path of this tornado as has sometimes been at issue in other violent tornadoes. If it reached EF-5 intensity for any reasonable period of time it is likely (but not guaranteed) the tornado hit a structure capable of supporting an EF-5 rating.

In other words, I don't think this is going to be one where people quibble over anchor bolt spacing on one small house in the middle of nowhere and whether it was sufficient or not. There should be plenty of well-built DIs to look at, and if this tornado reached EF-5 intensity along its path, it will be identified.
 
Evan said:
Bottom line, it's highly improbable we'll see a dearth of well-constructed DIs in the path of this tornado as has sometimes been at issue in other violent tornadoes. If it reached EF-5 intensity for any reasonable period of time it is likely (but not guaranteed) the tornado hit a structure capable of supporting an EF-5 rating.

In other words, I don't think this is going to be one where people quibble over anchor bolt spacing on one small house in the middle of nowhere and whether it was sufficient or not. There should be plenty of well-built DIs to look at, and if this tornado reached EF-5 intensity along its path, it will be identified.
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I agree and I am 100% confident the tornado did reach EF5 strength at some point - I'm just trying to say that I don't feel like arguing with anyone over this tornado's rating, at least not until more information is available.
 
TH2002 said:
I agree and I am 100% confident the tornado did reach EF5 strength at some point - I'm just trying to say that I don't feel like arguing with anyone over this tornado's rating, at least not until more information is available.
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However there are other indicators beyond homes and buildings that also indicate how violent this tornado actually was.
 
Evan said:
Bottom line, it's highly improbable we'll see a dearth of well-constructed DIs in the path of this tornado as has sometimes been at issue in other violent tornadoes. If it reached EF-5 intensity for any reasonable period of time it is likely (but not guaranteed) the tornado hit a structure capable of supporting an EF-5 rating.

In other words, I don't think this is going to be one where people quibble over anchor bolt spacing on one small house in the middle of nowhere and whether it was sufficient or not. There should be plenty of well-built DIs to look at, and if this tornado reached EF-5 intensity along its path, it will be identified.
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I’d agree except for the fact that NWS Louisville is surveying a large segment of the path. They tend to play it too conservative even if construction is solid. Never underestimate the lengths a more conservative survey team will go to to avoid applying a higher-end. I’ve made the mistake of assuming that “if there’s EF5 damage, they’ll rate it as such” (looking at you NWS Jackson, and your survey of the Bassfield tornado).
 
vanni9283 said:
However there are other indicators beyond homes and buildings that also indicate how violent this tornado actually was.
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I am fully aware of the scouring, debarking and other extreme contextual damage (water tower in Mayfield and train cars in Earlington for example) this tornado caused. I have no doubts it was a violent tornado but like I said I'm not going to argue with anyone at this stage over whether it was an EF4 or EF5.
 
buckeye05 said:
I’d agree except for the fact that NWS Louisville is surveying a large segment of the path. They tend to play it too conservative even if construction is solid. Never underestimate the lengths a more conservative survey team will go to to avoid applying a higher-end. I’ve made the mistake of assuming that “if there’s EF5 damage, they’ll rate it as such” (looking at you NWS Jackson, and your survey of the Bassfield tornado).
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Well, it depends. Are they bringing in Tim Marshall?:confused:
 
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