- Moderator
- #41
I can see Tuesday could be pretty hairy regarding tornado potential, though shear seems a lot weaker on Wednesday. Nevertheless, I usually don't like seeing CAPE modelled as high as it's supposed to be for Wednesday for GA. I'm not all that good at reading into the details beyond some of the soundings/model data, so are there some particular things that would point to Wednesday being more serious tornado-wise than currently forecast?
The speed and directional shear does look greater Tuesday than Wednesday. However, I think Wednesday still warrants attention for the tornado risk given the amount of instability that could be realized within the 200-250 0-1km SRH and a 40+knt southwesterly LLJ. There's also falling heights and forcing so storm initiation appears likely.
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