Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[TimM]

Tornado warning out

 

[TimM]

May be about to get another...

 

[andyhb]

A pair of strongly rotating cells in N AR/SE MO currently, latest MCD indicates they likely have strong tornado potential.

 

[TornadoFan]

Now theres a warning in SE Missouri.

 

[TornadoFan]

The storms in Arkansas are getting going
...

 

[TimM]

Possible debris indication near Choctaw.

 

[TimM]

Donut hole on the tornado warned storm near Ash Flat. It's a confirmed tornado and could be considerable.

 

[TornadoFan]

PDS warning now

 

[TornadoFan]

The SE MO storm may be about to produce.

 

[buckeye05]

This is about the latest I've ever seen a risk area start to verify. It's unfolding well after everyone called it a day, including myself. Craziness.

 

[buckeye05]

Ash Flat, AR is about to get hit

 

[buckeye05]

Likely significant tornado just clipped the western outskirts of Glenallen, MO

 

[172556]

Glenallen, MO appears to have just taken a very near miss. GTG over 150mph from KPAH as it passed town, huge TDS.

 

[172556]

MD issued for Glenallen tornado:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 477

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...southeast MO...far southern IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

Valid 050848Z - 050915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

SUMMARY...Based on recent radar velocity and environmental data, a
strong tornado (EF2-EF3) is likely ongoing. The risk for a longer
track strong tornado will likely persist and spread northeastward
perhaps into southern IL through 430am.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is moving northeastward across
southeast MO within a plume of rich low-level moisture immediately
east of the supercell (mid 60s dewpoints). Area 88D VAD show
enlarged low-level hodographs (around 400 0-1km SRH with the
observed storm motion per KPAH). The strong deep-layer shear
coupled with the moderate buoyancy has promoted the development of
long-lived supercells. Expecting a continuation of the
strong-tornado threat to persist downstream into southern IL over
the next hour or so.

..Smith.. 04/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...

LAT...LON 37409004 37948921 37868889 37638879 37248986 37268999
37409004

 

[KevinH]

This is about the latest I've ever seen a risk area start to verify. It's unfolding well after everyone called it a day, including myself. Craziness.

That seems to be a theme this year. People calling things a certain way. Then the weather says “hold my beer” lol

We really don’t know what the weather is going to do until it actually happens.

 

[Avon]

Feel like spc should drop the 10% hatched tor probs to a 5 or 2% for the risk area as no models are showing any discrete activity and winds are unidirectional which encourages linear mode and wind damage plus we're gonna be stuck with cloud cover all day

 

[atrainguy]

 

[atrainguy]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 480

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...central and northern IN...northwest OH...southern
and central portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 051109Z - 051315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely need to be considered as the
airmass continues to destabilize and storms spread into the area
from the west.

DISCUSSION...An extensive squall line located over southern WI into
northern and central IL will rapidly move eastward across the
southwest portion of the Great Lakes early this morning. A warm
front currently analyzed over far southern Lower MI will advance
northward this morning into central portions of Lower MI. South of
the warm front across northern IN/northwest OH, temperatures are in
the lower 70s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. Although lapse rates
will likely remain modest, theta-e advection into Lower MI south of
the warm front will contribute to weak buoyancy (250-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE) from parts of central IN northward into central Lower MI.
Enlarged low-level hodographs will be maintained across the
discussion area prior to squall line passage later this morning into
the early afternoon. As a result, the environment will support
swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps locally concentrate severe wind
potential with any bowing portions of the squall line. At least
some risk for mesovortex tornadoes will probably accompany localized
areas within the larger squall line. It remains unclear (low
probability scenario) whether a more cellular storm mode (i.e.,
supercells) will evolve ahead of the squall line. Regardless, the
risk for damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of
tornadoes could develop and spread from west to east across adjacent
portions of IN/Lower MI/OH later this morning into the early
afternoon.

..Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Guidance shows a locally greater tornado risk in MS today.