Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[TornadoFan]

Amazing how quickly the IL storm became a skeleton of its former self.

 

[JayF]

Perfect timing for the hook on that supercell to fall apart.

Yep it is weaking more and if it hasn't fallen apart it will soon.

 

[ColdFront]

Amazing how quickly the IL storm became a skeleton of its former self.

I think we knew the environment was going to be pretty hostile up north just due to capping/ and as many have pointed out LCL issues. I’m amazed that cell lasted as long as it did

 

[TornadoFan]

Storms in Texarkana are clustering together...

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Northern threat has, according to @ColdFront, cap busted (for the most part, there were a few standouts up there). All eyes on Arkansas.

 

[ColdFront]

Couple of storms firing and in a line southwest of Little Rock.

 

[WesL]

Spotted this on twitter from Iowa -

 

[Avon]

0z hrrr takes a poop for Wednesday's setup just a bunch of crapvection from today's stuff

 

[ColdFront]

0z hrrr takes a poop for Wednesday's setup just a bunch of crapvection from today's stuff

I’m still more bullish on the southern mode tonight, IF the right storms fire and stay discrete.

Unless some other mechanism is at play tomorrow I’d imagine tomorrow could involve a pretty nasty QLCS up north

 

[JayF]

A Chaser really needs to pay attention to where these storms are and if they end up in the path, they need to take cover just like everyone else.

 

[Tennie]

A Chaser really needs to pay attention to where these storms are and if they end up in the path, they need to take cover just like everyone else.

Sometimes I can't help but wonder if we've really internalized the lessons from El Reno 2013 as much as we should have...

 

[TornadoFan]

From the SPC.


DISCUSSION...A conditional tornado threat is evolving across the
Arklatex region. Currently, a cluster of cells near the Arklatex
region have shown evidence of deepening updrafts with increasing
echo top heights on radar. The environment across south-central
Arkansas and northern Louisiana is conditionally supportive of
strong tornadoes, given sampling of 0-1 km SRH around 300-400 J/kg
and large, curved hodographs at SHV and LZK. RAP analysis shows STP
around 4-5 across this region over the next few hours. Should this
line of developing storms continue to intensify, a risk for strong
tornadoes will be possible especially if semi-discrete cells can
become established. A watch may be needed within the hour if trends
show continue development with increasing intensity.

 

[buckeye05]

Every outbreak, I hear something stupid like this, and it makes me think that chasing community is becoming more full of people who don’t have a clue what they are doing, and their confidence vastly exceeds their skill level, resulting in incidents like this happening repeatedly.

 

[warneagle]

Every outbreak, I hear something stupid like this, and it makes me think that chasing community is becoming more full of people who don’t have a clue what they are doing, and their confidence vastly exceeds their skill level, resulting in incidents like this happening repeatedly.

Part of it is people doing it without proper training, adequate scientific knowledge, and/or common sense, but part of it is that there are just too many people out there these days.

 

[TH2002]

I spy with my little eye now blurry vision a couple cells firing up in the Arklatex region. Could become a problem later on if the developing QLCS doesn’t eat them up.

 

[JayF]

Part of it is people doing it without proper training, adequate scientific knowledge, and/or common sense, but part of it is that there are just too many people out there these days.

And trying to do it alone. You need multiple people so that you have someone to keep an eye on the radar while the other one drives. A Navigator is a must when chasing.

 

[warneagle]

And trying to do it alone. You need multiple people so that you have someone to keep an eye on the radar while the other one drives. A Navigator is a must when chasing.

Yep, one of the first things I remember being taught was that one person is fine for stationary spotting, but if you're gonna drive you've gotta have that second set of eyes.

 

[ColdFront]

In not trying to sound like an impatient child saying are we there yet, did the SPC put a general time window on when the southern mode may heat up?

 

[TH2002]

Is it just me or is the semi-discrete cell west of Lawrence, KS trying to get "the look"

 

[Muwx]

In not trying to sound like an impatient child saying are we there yet, did the SPC put a general time window on when the southern mode may heat up?

I don’t think anyone has any idea what’s going to happen in the southern risk, if I’m being honest.