Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[brianc33710]

This warm cap kept AL from having a significant severe weather outbreak a few weeks back. So far this has drastically limited what would probably otherwise be a notable event. Will this hold through the night?

 

[ColdFront]

This warm cap kept AL from having a significant severe weather outbreak a few weeks back. So far this has drastically limited what would probably otherwise be a notable event. Will this hold through the night?

As another user stated above, no one really knows on the southern sector lol.

However, I can tell you that line of storms that formed southwest of Little Rock earlier have all but disappeared as they track across Arkansas

 

[SmokeEater]

We're coming up on a decade since the 2013 El Reno tornado, and the many lessons that should be ingrained in every storm chaser's brain have been completely disregarded for the most part. As long as the big money making shots involve getting recklessly close to, or even inside of a tornado, these incidents will continue to happen. I hate to sound so pessimistic, but that's the cold reality of storm chasing these days.

This is really getting ridiculous now it's getting worse every single event. It's almost getting to the point where a chaser is almost dying EVERY single major cell, in every event now. Not just every event itself.



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[Muwx]

@andyhb any thoughts on the over night threat? Seems like the cap is holding pretty strong

 

[brianc33710]

As another user stated above, no one really knows on the southern sector lol.

However, I can tell you that line of storms that formed southwest of Little Rock earlier have all but disappeared as they track across Arkansas

TWC pointed to a strong storm headed toward San Antonio that died on its approach due to the warmth aloft. So far definitely not going HIGH has been the right choice.

 

[TimM]

I'm right on the line of the moderate risk, so I'm watching the storms that fire closely. I'm hoping the cap holds!

 

[Muwx]

Local Mets here in swmo all seem to be throwing in the towel and pretty much giving the all clear tornado wise.

 

[ColdFront]

I’m waiting to see if SPC downgrades the southern section now, regardless I think my armchair chase is over for the night.

This was a set up that looked pretty spooky a week ago, even 4 days ago, but that cap was just too stout

 

[Muwx]

I’m waiting to see if SPC downgrades the southern section now, regardless I think my armchair chase is over for the night.

This was a set up that looked pretty spooky a week ago, even 4 days ago, but that cap was just too stout

There isn’t another SPC update

 

[buckeye05]

Currently, we have three severe thunderstorm warnings in Wisconsin, and that’s it. I guess things could still pop off in the southern threat area overnight, but I’m getting skeptical.

 

[andyhb]

@andyhb any thoughts on the over night threat? Seems like the cap is holding pretty strong

Feel like the cap and cloud cover associated with the sub-tropical jet may have done in the southern section of the risk.

And yes, there's a large section of the chasing community that essentially is the epitome of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

 

[Tanner]

Yeah, I’ve thrown in the rag for the night. As a weather fanatic, I’m indifferent…as a civilian, I’m happy. A tricky forecast and a blessing that we avoided what looked like a historic outbreak on the table from a distance.


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[rushdude]

One of the local weather guys here on Fox 4, Dan Henry, saying a line could start coming through around 2 or 3 AM, and strongest storms could have a brief spin-up.

I feel like I'll probably be woken up by a Severe Thunderstorm Warning later tonight.
Hopefully that'll be all

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Welp, I couldn't catch lightning (or a tornado) in a bottle twice in a row and returned to my usual form with a solid bust. Targeted southeast IA on the warm front. Seems like it set up a little further south than I was expecting/hoping. Ended up in Mt. Pleasant where it was 86/68 per the 5PM ob. However I was now stuck between storms to my west coming out of SW IA, and the messy cluster to my south in MO heading into IL. I was reluctant to commit to the storms further west, assuming they would be negatively impacted by the mixing. I eventually pushed into IL on US-34, half trying to see if I could get downstream of the gradually organizing convective cluster, and half just to get a head start on my trip home. As you all saw it did soon organize into a supercell. I was in close proximity to it when it picked up a tornado warning, but on the wrong side and as it turned right there was no way I could outflank it to get a view of the base without getting cored, so I just started the nearly 4-hour drive home, dodging elevated hailers on the way.

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[Lake Martin EF4]

I’m waiting to see if SPC downgrades the southern section now, regardless I think my armchair chase is over for the night.

This was a set up that looked pretty spooky a week ago, even 4 days ago, but that cap was just too stout

Yep. A setup that was considered as High Risk material and being compared to May 3, 2003 and even April 3, 1974 ended in a flame out and a spectacular cap bust, while March 31st - the "day before the day" expected to somewhat bust - basically became exactly what we expected from today.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Local Mets here in swmo all seem to be throwing in the towel and pretty much giving the all clear tornado wise.

Ugh, no that’s not true for southwest MO. There’s a line of storms forecast to move through in the early AM that will pose a tornado risk.

 

[Muwx]

Ugh, no that’s not true for southwest MO. There’s a line of storms forecast to move through in the early AM that will pose a tornado risk.

At this point, I think it’s pretty true for SWMO.

 

[brianc33710]

Yep. A setup that was considered as High Risk material and being compared to May 3, 2003 and even April 3, 1974 ended in a flame out and a spectacular cap bust, while March 31st - the "day before the day" expected to somewhat bust - basically became exactly what we expected from today.

So sticking with MOD instead of HIGH was a smart move. MOD is too high too but a little less of an overkill. Based on the upcoming weather patterns the SE seems safe from some significant severe weather outbreaks for a while--due to a summer type Gulf ridge. James Spann said this in his Tuesday pm video.

 

[TimM]

Some storms in western Arkansas are trying to get going.

 

[jiharris0220]

Guys, I think the southern moderate risk area shouldn’t be discounted just yet…