This is kind of like weather Darwinism.
Whatever tornado producing supercell is able to get going and thrive in this kind of environment will undoubtedly be a monster
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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Whatever tornado producing supercell is able to get going and thrive in this kind of environment will undoubtedly be a monster
Muwx
Member
Something could be brewing in the southern risk area
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The cluster of storms now crossing into western IL have begun their fight for dominance - and if the NSSL and ARW end up being right, we all know what that means…
Here's what I see tomorrow for North MS:
1. Slight Risk gets expanded south and east with upgrade to Enhanced Risk. 00z and 12z RRFS-A model were nasty looking.
2. North MS could get upgraded to a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Going back to the RRFS-A model (particularly the 12z run), it showed storms training over the same areas with total rainfall amounts between 3-5 inches over Central/Northern Monroe County, MS. The last thing that Amory and Smithville need is flash flooding. Unfortunately, those amounts are on the table.
Not much has been said about tomorrow's threat further south.
1. Slight Risk gets expanded south and east with upgrade to Enhanced Risk. 00z and 12z RRFS-A model were nasty looking.
2. North MS could get upgraded to a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Going back to the RRFS-A model (particularly the 12z run), it showed storms training over the same areas with total rainfall amounts between 3-5 inches over Central/Northern Monroe County, MS. The last thing that Amory and Smithville need is flash flooding. Unfortunately, those amounts are on the table.
Not much has been said about tomorrow's threat further south.
Thanksgivingbrown
Member
Storm near Macomb, IL is getting its act together
warneagle
Member
Looks like these storms are struggling to get all the way to the ground, probably an issue with LCL/moisture quality.
Yeah, it’s still early and I don’t want to do a hot wash on the northern section just yet but the mixing issues may be too hard to overcome.
warneagle
Member
Yeah, definitely still early, plenty of time for things to change. I'm certainly not writing anything off yet, it's going to be a long night.
atrainguy
Member
Shakespeare 2016
Member
The temp/dew spread seems to be coming closer together. Des Moines, IA 67/58 and Springfield, MO 76/64. So 10 or less is probably your best bet.
OHWX97
Member
The cell south of Des Moines is looking mighty suspicious.
Thanksgivingbrown
Member
Umm…nasty hook
tornado examiner
Member
the des moine cell has a sudo debris ball looking thing on it
What is the environment like ahead of that Iowa tor? That thing got nasty in a hurry
warneagle
Member
confirmed tornado near Macomb, IL