Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[warneagle]

So were there just no 18z balloon launches today? I’m not seeing anything on the SPC’s page other than DVN’s.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Huge hatched area on the latest day 1

 

[cincywx]

So were there just no 18z balloon launches today? I’m not seeing anything on the SPC’s page other than DVN’s.

i was wondering the same thing. i assumed it was just taking some time to retrieve the data but its been a couple hours now so i guess DVN was the only one.

 

[cincywx]

very brief disco on the new d1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2023

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
IOWA...WESTERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...

..SUMMARY

TORNADOES, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL TEXAS. TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS FOCUSED TODAY OVER PARTS OF IOWA/ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE
ARKLATEX REGION.

..IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE IS A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN
IA AND FAR NORTHERN MO. RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MO TO WESTERN
IA AROUND 22 UTC, AND THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT SURFACE AND
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS (SEE MCD #456 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
DETAILS). ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE HIGHER RISK
PROBABILITIES (SEE FORTHCOMING MCD #457 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).

..MOORE/JEWELL.. 04/04/2023

 

[warneagle]

i was wondering the same thing. i assumed it was just taking some time to retrieve the data but its been a couple hours now so i guess DVN was the only one.

Which is completely unhelpful because it was on the cool side of the boundary when it was launched. Zero special launches in the warm sector of a moderate risk day is very confusing to me.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning for Howard Co., Missouri, which is, of course, about as far away from the St. Louis and Kansas City radars as you can get.

 

[andyhb]

Good chance of a significant tornado with that Columbia MO cell.

 

[cincywx]

Which is completely unhelpful because it was on the cool side of the boundary when it was launched. Zero special launches in the warm sector of a moderate risk day is very confusing to me.

yeah im not gonna lie, ive been mentally in denial for that exact reason. this is a complex forecast so you'd think that 18z launches would help provide some clarity. only other thing I can think of is they suspect 0z will provide a better picture.

 

[OHWX97]

DVN just confirmed a brief EF2 occurred earlier this afternoon near Colona, IL.

 

[ColdFront]

 

[andyhb]

LCL heights are likely the inhibiting factor. T/Td spreads are still too high.

 

[warneagle]

We did get a 20z sounding from SGF at least. Would’ve been nice to have something to look at from the northern MDT area but it’s better than nothing.

 

[warneagle]

LCL heights are likely the inhibiting factor. T/Td spreads are still too high.

Yeah that SGF sounding is a testament to that. 15-20 degree T/Td spreads seem to be the norm basically across the entire warm sector right now.

 

[The Nino]

DVN just confirmed a brief EF2 occurred earlier this afternoon near Colona, IL.

that was quick....can't believe they have already gone out there and reported on it

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

3KM NAM with the win on that convection in MO. Obvious hook echo north of Centralia.

 

[ColdFront]

Think I’m going to eat an early dinner and have some coffee in case this thing goes crazy as it gets into the morning hours

 

[TH2002]

Think I’m going to eat an early dinner and have some coffee in case this thing goes crazy as it gets into the morning hours

Have a feeling something really bad is gonna drop right as I’m on the road leaving work today. Never fails for something like a floor loaded semi to show up on the same day as a potentially major severe weather event.

 

[ColdFront]

Are capping/LCL heights still posing problems?

 

[TH2002]

Doesn’t look like much now but I’m thinking this could be the storm of the day for Iowa