CheeselandSkies
Member
Broad warm sector stretching from eastern IA all the way across southern Lower MI/northern IN/NW OH with >100kt jet max and hodographs favorable for significant tornadoes across the entire region.
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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Broad warm sector stretching from eastern IA all the way across southern Lower MI/northern IN/NW OH with >100kt jet max and hodographs favorable for significant tornadoes across the entire region.
Does this mean HRRR is showing lower Dew points vs the RTMA? And the real time obs are showing higher which could result in those LCL issues you previously discussed
CheeselandSkies
Member
Higher dewpoints would mitigate the potential LCL issues.
It would also make it much more likely for air parcels to reach their LFCs (i.e. for convective initiation to happen).
atrainguy
Member
Awesome thanks both of you for answering my probably “noobish” questions
WhirlingWx
Member
KevinH
Member
Was there any severe weather today? I missed it lol
atrainguy
Member
I know there were several tornado warnings in SE AL and SW GA, but I dunno if any tornadoes actually touched down.
JPWX
Member
2 tornadoes reports in Southeast Alabama. Otherwise, just 37 damaging wind reports and 10 hail reports.
CheeselandSkies
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
TornadoFan
Member
The FV3 is at it again.
Both the NSSL and ARW have a monster supercell tracking from NE MO into W IL tomorrow afternoon in an incredible parameter space.
NSSL explicitly resolving a hook echo and intense mesocyclone.
NSSL explicitly resolving a hook echo and intense mesocyclone.
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JPWX
Member
Honestly, I can't remember seeing a short range model depicting a supercell that well.Both the NSSL and ARW have a monster supercell tracking from NE MO into W IL tomorrow afternoon in an incredible parameter space.
NSSL explicitly resolving a hook echo and intense mesocyclone.
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You can literally see the hook on the supercell in the model guidance. How often does that happen?Both the NSSL and ARW have a monster supercell tracking from NE MO into W IL tomorrow afternoon in an incredible parameter space.
NSSL explicitly resolving a hook echo and intense mesocyclone.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Both the NSSL and ARW have a monster supercell tracking from NE MO into W IL tomorrow afternoon in an incredible parameter space.
NSSL explicitly resolving a hook echo and intense mesocyclone.
In the frame valid for 22Z, is it actually resolving the mesocyclone as a 985mb mesolow?
Meanwhile, FV3 in full-on supercell printer mode across the IA/MO/IL intersection as per the tweet linked above.
TornadoFan
Member
RRFS chose violence.
CheeselandSkies
Member
So we got 2 supercell printers now...HRRR is late to the party and even it has a strong simulated supercell in IL, even though the soundings around it look like donkey.
WhirlingWx
Member
That's a pretty funny frame. Taking a quick glance at soundings, however, appears to show that the environment around most of those supercells is not favorable for tornadoes.
EDIT: I just want to clarify that I don't mean this statement as reflective of the severe weather risk overall tomorrow, just commenting on that particular frame of the RRFS, which I can see is starting to gain traction on Twitter as well lol
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