Kds86z
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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
Seems like This has been the story of this outbreak sequence so far. Storm mode and number of storms going up. It didn’t hamper the threat on Wednesday, so we will see if it does today.
DanLarsen34
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- Cedarburg, WI
I would say that’s high likelihood for at least 1-2 cells if this modeled environment is anywhere close to what happens this afternoon.
Is there any way to check if any confluence bands are present on models? Is there a specific product that's good for it?
Kds86z
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Arkansas sadly has been due for a bad outbreak. I don’t just mean the north and northeast corner, like across the state.
AJS
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Pretty nasty sounding. The HRRR run looks pretty insane too. Praying today doesn’t end up being as intense as the other day.
It’s possible, I have seen Reed & Trey highlight them a few times. I usually just use the SPC mesoscale page and look at the station reported wind vectors In the surface obs view. You get a much larger wind vector sampling on the models though
It’s very much a mesoscale factor though since it’s just that slight subtle wind shift
DanLarsen34
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- Cedarburg, WI
On Wednesday, I think it helped that the storms with the second band that became significantly tornadic were spaced just well enough so as not to interfere with each other. That’s why I was so nervous about what they were going to do once they reached the more favorable environment near the Mississippi River. The spacing looked similar to other high-end events, although the environment wasn’t anywhere near as top-tier as something like 4/27/2011.
To some degree, the evolution of the second band in that two hour window reminded me of less severe version of what happened on 5/24/2011 in Oklahoma.
I wish there was a way to get the mesoanalysis GEMPAK files so I could make it easier to see things like that.
Have you checked anything on GitHub? They actually have a lot python custom libraries built on there directly related to severe weather and wX data.I wish there was a way to get the mesoanalysis GEMPAK files so I could make it easier to see things like that.
Keldeo
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I emailed Thompson a while back about an archive for mesoanalysis GEMPAK files and they said it would be difficult to make it public due to the sheer amount of data. I'm not sure if there's something like that for the real-time mesoanalysis. I'll have to see, can you link their GitHub?
You probably could just search on there “SPC mesoscale analysis” or something. I’m sure someone has built a custom API to pull that data down, it may not be in GEMPAK files though
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13z hrrr is very bullish on supercells in central and north Central Arkansas this afternoon, wow. 
Ah s*it, here we go again!
CannedHeat
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The 0Z RRFS wants to obliterate western Kentucky and Tennessee on Saturday.
shrubber256
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- Athens
Are those cells over North Alabama going to cause potential trouble?
All I could find are images, I couldn't find any actual files or API for the raw data used for mesoanalysis sadly.