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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

Apparently the straight line wind threat is comparatively low. I see nothing higher than 15% & nothing hatched despite the SPC using "Damaging," the 80 mph criteria at local NWS offices. This sets off STWarns emergency devices & sirens in polygons. Will they upgrade that later to match the other threats? Should they? This took place in a later update Wed.
 
andyhb said:
Uh, are you sure about that? The 10z had multiple long tracked supercells in the MDT risk.
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I see what your talking about, I was mainly referencing the 12z and 18z yesterday and what they showed. 10z and some of the other runs still looks dangerous though. (Looking closer at the 10z though it has multiple supercells close to the line which wouldn't be good)

18Z-20250403_HRRRSE_prec_radar-24-35-80-100.gif12Z-20250403_HRRRSE_prec_radar-32-40-80-100.gif
 
CheeselandSkies said:
02Z HRRR forecast sounding for somewhere in the vicinity of Little Rock at 20Z tomorrow, with active supercells to the west and initiation of others underway at FH018 (end of the run).

That's...some hodograph.

Of note is also the moisture depth. That's almost deeper than you want it to be ideal for tornado production, so something to keep an eye on.

View attachment 38962
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It really is wild how parameters have to be in almost perfect balance to get an outbreak. Moisture? Got to have it, but not that deep. Daytime heating? Helps a lot, but it can’t get too hot (see Wednesday day). Forcing? Essential, but not too much or you’ll have too many storms go up. Cap/EML? Essential and helps, but if it’s too stout and there’s a mistimed trough/shortwave ejection, you may not get a drop of rain.
 
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