Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[AJS]

Now to see, will broyles come through once again as an expert forecaster?

All I will say is that that one little area in Arkansas has some damn extreme parameters.

 

[tornado examiner]

All I will say is that that one little area in Arkansas has some damn extreme parameters.

If storm mode irons itself out and looks less messy on cams, it could happen. Which…would be insane

 

[Clancy]

Pretty much every frame of the 00Z HRRR run so far features nearly continuous severe, potentially tornadic convection. Really, really bad time for Arkansas, western Tennessee and western Kentucky, who will be dealing with yesterday's tornadoes, today's flooding and now this. Many smaller communities' emergency response networks will likely be pushed to their limits, and some areas may become unreachable due to flooding. Goes without saying, but I sure hope chasers stay out of the way of emergency responders tomorrow, and don't risk drowning themselves in flood waters.

 

[AJS]

Pretty much every frame of the 00Z HRRR run so far features nearly continuous severe, potentially tornadic convection. Really, really bad time for Arkansas, western Tennessee and western Kentucky, who will be dealing with yesterday's tornadoes, today's flooding and now this. Many smaller communities' emergency response networks will likely be pushed to their limits, and some areas may become unreachable due to flooding. Goes without saying, but I sure hope chasers stay out of the way of emergency responders tomorrow, and don't risk drowning themselves in flood waters.
View attachment 38955

Sheesh. Looks like another potentially tough day in store for tomorrow.

 

[tornado examiner]

Obviously I’m staying up for the day 1.

 

[AJS]

Obviously I’m staying up for the day 1.

Wonder if Broyles has his pink sharpie ready to go. ( jokes ) He nailed yesterday.

 

[ghost]

Ryan Hall's showing a spectacular supercell near Lewisburg, Tennessee:

View attachment 38952

Just curious, but why does this guy put his pic up with him behind a microphone when he posts severe storm/radar pics? Don't get it

 

[snostorm21]

Not expecting a high risk for tomorrow, but definitely concerning setup for AR.

 

[AJS]

Not expecting a high risk for tomorrow, but definitely concerning setup for AR.

Yeah, I agree. Regardless if it’s issued, there are some dangerous parameters in place and if storms tap into the environment, it could get ugly.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

All this rain means the wind threat is more acute since trees are more likely to topple over

 

[wx_guy]

Here's the first look for my model at Saturday.


By 4 PM CDT, Hail and Tornado threats are advancing across Arkansas.






By 7 PM, advancing across Mississippi. To this point, Hail appears to be the most widespread threat with isolate tornadoes.





8 PM and a Wind threat is present as the storms move across Mississippi, as well as Hail and isolated Tornadoes.





At 5 AM Sunday morning, the line is pushing through MS and Al and TN with an all-hazards affair, but the overall threat appears Limited at this time.




So if this model verifies, Saturday will feature all hazard, but the severity, dynamics, and power will be limited in scope and effects.

 

[cg9450]

Obviously I’m staying up for the day 1.

I’m there up with you. It’s gonna be something.

 

[Kds86z]

I’m there up with you. It’s gonna be something.

 

[Austin Dawg]

We may be at the far west edge of the line that is supposed to form this weekend, but it has made our weather guys stand up and pay attention for a change. I'm going to be watching this all unfold tomorrow and Saturday.

 

[slenker]

I'd be shocked if they issued a high risk but not as shocked as I was for yesterday. CAMs are going wild tomorrow, lol

 

[CheeselandSkies]

02Z HRRR forecast sounding for somewhere in the vicinity of Little Rock at 20Z tomorrow, with active supercells to the west and initiation of others underway at FH018 (end of the run).

That's...some hodograph.

Of note is also the moisture depth. That's almost deeper than you want it to be ideal for tornado production, so something to keep an eye on.

 

[Kds86z]

02Z HRRR forecast sounding for somewhere in the vicinity of Little Rock at 20Z tomorrow, with active supercells to the west and initiation of others underway at FH018 (end of the run).

That's...some hodograph.

Of note is also the moisture depth. That's almost deeper than you want it to be ideal for tornado production, so something to keep an eye on.

View attachment 38962

Help me learn, what is detrimental about to much moisture?

 

[tornado examiner]

Help me learn, what is detrimental about to much moisture?

A potential for over convection?

 

[eep]

02Z HRRR forecast sounding for somewhere in the vicinity of Little Rock at 20Z tomorrow, with active supercells to the west and initiation of others underway at FH018 (end of the run).

That's...some hodograph.

Of note is also the moisture depth. That's almost deeper than you want it to be ideal for tornado production, so something to keep an eye on.

View attachment 38962

Newbie question but wouldn't rich moisture depth exacerbate the threat? I'd assume that'd mean that there would be unbelievable amounts of air for storms to ingest.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Help me learn, what is detrimental about to much moisture?

I'm not 100% on it but I've read when you have the profile saturated up to and above 700mb like that, it can weaken the lapse rate and hamper low-level updrafts. Than and you can get precip-loaded RFDs that are less ideal for tornadogenesis (especially if, as a chaser, you're looking for ones that are visible).

Anecdotally, the Skew-T profiles on my chase days that have produced tornadoes near my target area have moderate drying (the green dewpoint line zags to the left, but not all the way) around the 700mb level.

I really should go back and look at my saved forecast soundings and confirm this. That's the reason I save them, so I can review and learn from them, but I rarely actually do it.