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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

You can really tell where the warm front / boundary is within Arkansas looking at current conditions. A good example being between Little Rock and Pine Bluff, a distance of 40 miles (as the crow flies), where temperatures and dew points shoot up about 10 degrees over that distance.
 

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As @Taylor Campbell mentioned, threat for Alabama and Georgia could be sneakily higher than currently forecast. NAM, of all models, has our main convection transitioning between broken QLCS and true MCS, with attendant wind and tornado risk. I could see probabilities being bumped up, pending resolution to questions about storm mode and areal coverage of instability.
1743781276309.png1743781341476.png1743781357415.png1743781384869.png
 
Model info coming in. This is another 2km resolution run (so it has 125% more grid cells than the 3km HRRR), and it focuses on Arkansas today.


At 2 PM, the tornado threat starts in Arkansas, according to this model's run. It's picking up on UH of 105, which is sufficient for EF1 or EF2 maybe.

1743781107773.png



A locally higher tornado risk manifests at 3PM, according to this model.

1743781237250.png



By 5 PM, it's a madhouse with several high-end supercells with tornadic potential.

1743781369508.png


At 6 PM, mayhem continues! And a considerably Flash Flood threat is manifesting across Arkansas as well. I imagine Flash flood warnings and maybe more tonight.


1743781466380.png



At 7 PM (the furthest the model currently has run), the agony continues, with a very high Tornado and Flash Flood threat. The model is showing some areas, as seen, getting over 5 (additional) inches of rain in 3 hours.





1743781586883.png



For Arkansas, specifically, if this model verifies, the Moderate risk will definitely be warranted, and a High risk should at least be considered (but I still think Moderate is probably the most appropriate due to the small real estate involved). Not sure if Little Rock will avoid the worst, but we'll see!
 
wx_guy said:
Model info coming in. This is another 2km resolution run (so it has 125% more grid cells than the 3km HRRR), and it focuses on Arkansas today.


At 2 PM, the tornado threat starts in Arkansas, according to this model's run. It's picking up on UH of 105, which is sufficient for EF1 or EF2 maybe.

View attachment 39005



A locally higher tornado risk manifests at 3PM, according to this model.

View attachment 39006



By 5 PM, it's a madhouse with several high-end supercells with tornadic potential.

View attachment 39010


At 6 PM, mayhem continues! And a considerably Flash Flood threat is manifesting across Arkansas as well. I imagine Flash flood warnings and maybe more tonight.


View attachment 39012



At 7 PM (the furthest the model currently has run), the agony continues, with a very high Tornado and Flash Flood threat. The model is showing some areas, as seen, getting over 5 (additional) inches of rain in 3 hours.





View attachment 39013



For Arkansas, specifically, if this model verifies, the Moderate risk will definitely be warranted, and a High risk should at least be considered (but I still think Moderate is probably the most appropriate due to the small real estate involved). Not sure if Little Rock will avoid the worst, but we'll see!
Click to expand...
Wow.. lots of discrete cells..
 
wx_guy said:
Model info coming in. This is another 2km resolution run (so it has 125% more grid cells than the 3km HRRR), and it focuses on Arkansas today.


At 2 PM, the tornado threat starts in Arkansas, according to this model's run. It's picking up on UH of 105, which is sufficient for EF1 or EF2 maybe.

View attachment 39005



A locally higher tornado risk manifests at 3PM, according to this model.

View attachment 39006



By 5 PM, it's a madhouse with several high-end supercells with tornadic potential.

View attachment 39010


At 6 PM, mayhem continues! And a considerably Flash Flood threat is manifesting across Arkansas as well. I imagine Flash flood warnings and maybe more tonight.


View attachment 39012



At 7 PM (the furthest the model currently has run), the agony continues, with a very high Tornado and Flash Flood threat. The model is showing some areas, as seen, getting over 5 (additional) inches of rain in 3 hours.





View attachment 39013



For Arkansas, specifically, if this model verifies, the Moderate risk will definitely be warranted, and a High risk should at least be considered (but I still think Moderate is probably the most appropriate due to the small real estate involved). Not sure if Little Rock will avoid the worst, but we'll see!
Click to expand...
Your model is absolutely spitting supercells in Arkansas.
 
wx_guy said:
Model info coming in. This is another 2km resolution run (so it has 125% more grid cells than the 3km HRRR), and it focuses on Arkansas today.


At 2 PM, the tornado threat starts in Arkansas, according to this model's run. It's picking up on UH of 105, which is sufficient for EF1 or EF2 maybe.

View attachment 39005



A locally higher tornado risk manifests at 3PM, according to this model.

View attachment 39006



By 5 PM, it's a madhouse with several high-end supercells with tornadic potential.

View attachment 39010


At 6 PM, mayhem continues! And a considerably Flash Flood threat is manifesting across Arkansas as well. I imagine Flash flood warnings and maybe more tonight.


View attachment 39012



At 7 PM (the furthest the model currently has run), the agony continues, with a very high Tornado and Flash Flood threat. The model is showing some areas, as seen, getting over 5 (additional) inches of rain in 3 hours.





View attachment 39013



For Arkansas, specifically, if this model verifies, the Moderate risk will definitely be warranted, and a High risk should at least be considered (but I still think Moderate is probably the most appropriate due to the small real estate involved). Not sure if Little Rock will avoid the worst, but we'll see!
Click to expand...
Well... I really hope your model is wrong! Great work though, enjoy how straightforward its user interface is.
 
wx_guy said:
Model info coming in. This is another 2km resolution run (so it has 125% more grid cells than the 3km HRRR), and it focuses on Arkansas today.


At 2 PM, the tornado threat starts in Arkansas, according to this model's run. It's picking up on UH of 105, which is sufficient for EF1 or EF2 maybe.

View attachment 39005



A locally higher tornado risk manifests at 3PM, according to this model.

View attachment 39006



By 5 PM, it's a madhouse with several high-end supercells with tornadic potential.

View attachment 39010


At 6 PM, mayhem continues! And a considerably Flash Flood threat is manifesting across Arkansas as well. I imagine Flash flood warnings and maybe more tonight.


View attachment 39012



At 7 PM (the furthest the model currently has run), the agony continues, with a very high Tornado and Flash Flood threat. The model is showing some areas, as seen, getting over 5 (additional) inches of rain in 3 hours.





View attachment 39013



For Arkansas, specifically, if this model verifies, the Moderate risk will definitely be warranted, and a High risk should at least be considered (but I still think Moderate is probably the most appropriate due to the small real estate involved). Not sure if Little Rock will avoid the worst, but we'll see!
Click to expand...
Incredible work as usual. Love this model and its products, an lets hope that doesn't come into fruition.
 
Clancy said:
Well... I really hope your model is wrong! Great work though, enjoy how straightforward its user interface is.
Click to expand...


Monday Night Raw Yes GIF by WWE
 
Kds86z said:
Click to expand...


I don't know if Trey has slept this week. In addition to these, he's also founded a project called Storm Chaser Coaching with Carly Sisson (Carly Anna WX) and another chaser/weather YouTuber; for which he does weekly "Forecast Challenges" and review videos. That and he might have chased himself on Tuesday night.
 
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