Brice
Member
Yeah, if we see sunshine peeking out , that will be a definite concern just how unstable the atmosphere might be.
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This has definitely got high risk potential for sureIf a HIGH RISK was needed, which is very slim, which ingredients would be needed to be stronger or more defined?
End result looks about the same.18z NAM so far is trending slightly slower once again, if this keeps up, this will be a Sunday night threat for Alabama...gotta wonder since the Euro has slowed a bit too.
I don't think that's junk convection...that's supercellular convection.18 NAM shows a well defined warm front moving past I20/59 around 2/3pm in Alabama, what follows after the warm front is VERY concerning. It looks like it is trying to show some junk convection over central Alabama, but it doesn't match up with what you usually see with an expanding warm sector in April. WOW, I was hoping this was going to have a different result with the slowing. JUST WOW lots of PDS soundings.
I wondered that... the problem is that the NAM is not a CAMI don't think that's junk convection...that's supercellular convection.
I'd say this is a near certainty unless something massively changes in the evening guidance.I will say that the current outlooks are probably going to be have to be extended northward to the Tenn/AL border. The entire state of Alabama could be in play...especially the NW 3/4's.
And that is after we’ve had confluence bands of supercells out ahead of the dry line. It’s going to be a long afternoon and evening on Sunday.This makes me sick to look at. Valid 10 pm Sunday night.