Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat (5 Viewers)


vanni9283

Member
Messages
133
Location
Wayne, PA
I don't really agree. Yeah, the scale is too conservative these days, and this one straddles the line a bit, but the contextual support wasn't quite there. That kind of tree damage is pretty low-end for being next to what looks like EF5 structural damage. If you want a reminder of what trees look like after an EF5, have a look at Moore or Hackleburg/Phil Campbell. No comparison. JAN also noted no grass scouring on the property, with the path only being visible in plowed dirt fields. Not what you'd expect with an EF5. Also the house remnants, while there isn't much left, are suspiciously intact and unsplintered.

With that said, this one probably was capable of producing clear cut EF5 damage. The tree damage along Willie Fortenberry Road to the northeast of Bassfield was about as intense as you can get. I think that is where the tornado likely reached its peak intensity, and if there was a well-built house in the path in that area, we would likely be looking at an EF5 rating.

In any case, the JAN survey team has regained my trust this year. They have been very meticulous and intuitive, contacted damage experts, and really took their time with this one. I trust their word.
This is why I think the estimated wind speeds on the current EF-scale need to be higher than what they currently are.
 

Brice

Member
Messages
182
Location
Virginia
Guess what? Another violent tornado for 2020. The high end 165 EF3 in Estill, SC from early 4/13 got bumped to 175.

Do you have any pictures of the damage they found to rate 10 miles higher? I just wanna see what they found for EF4 damage in SC.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
1,825
Location
Saragossa, AL
Potential rating is based on the house in the tweet above in the damage survey viewer. Given the large size of the remaining debris and only barely damaged trees I guess I'm surprised they were bold enough to consider bumping it further


Apparently they have not made a final decision and will announce one way or the other tomorrow, but it seems odd to bump it in the toolkit before deciding on it since that's a publicly accessible tool.

 
Messages
304
Location
Lenexa, KS
Potential rating is based on the house in the tweet above in the damage survey viewer. Given the large size of the remaining debris and only barely damaged trees I guess I'm surprised they were bold enough to consider bumping it further


Apparently they have not made a final decision and will announce one way or the other tomorrow, but it seems odd to bump it in the toolkit before deciding on it since that's a publicly accessible tool.

It was also listed as an FR12 with winds of 172 mph which also seems kind of odd to me. Complete destruction of well-built/engineered home. Slab swept clean.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
532
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Potential rating is based on the house in the tweet above in the damage survey viewer. Given the large size of the remaining debris and only barely damaged trees I guess I'm surprised they were bold enough to consider bumping it further


Apparently they have not made a final decision and will announce one way or the other tomorrow, but it seems odd to bump it in the toolkit before deciding on it since that's a publicly accessible tool.

I have no issue with them bumping it up honestly. If a well-built house was flattened, and there are no glaring contextual discrepancies, why not go EF4? It's just following the scale as intended. The trend of less unreasonable low-balling of ratings seems to be continuing this year. Encouraging stuff!
 

Equus

Member
Messages
1,825
Location
Saragossa, AL
It certainly looks like it deserves it, just intrigued to see that WFOs are actually taking that route this year. Maybe most will follow suit
 
Messages
304
Location
Lenexa, KS
I have no issue with them bumping it up honestly. If a well-built house was flattened, and there are no glaring contextual discrepancies, why not go EF4? It's just following the scale as intended. The trend of less unreasonable low-balling of ratings seems to be continuing this year. Encouraging stuff!
NWS Charleston did decide to go with an EF4 rating. I would say the picture of the flattened house is low-end EF4 damage.
 

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