Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat (8 Viewers)


Equus

Member
Messages
1,825
Location
Saragossa, AL
It's certainly taken SEVERAL days to verify the Bassfield damage and DIs. I know it's a massive track and a big time undertaking, but the amount of time that's gone by without hearing much news on it, and the seeming secrecy of DIs (or just not having time to upload them) make me wonder if a big announcement (higher than 190, we'll say) is coming soon. That said, surveying 150+ miles of tornado track (and eighteen tornadoes thus far) in their CWA is definitely not an overnight process. They posted about three hours ago on Twitter seemingly finalizing the ratings, but who knows, could still be some analysis behind the scenes.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
532
Location
Riverside, Ohio
It's certainly taken SEVERAL days to verify the Bassfield damage and DIs. I know it's a massive track and a big time undertaking, but the amount of time that's gone by without hearing much news on it, and the seeming secrecy of DIs (or just not having time to upload them) make me wonder if a big announcement (higher than 190, we'll say) is coming soon. That said, surveying 150+ miles of tornado track (and eighteen tornadoes thus far) in their CWA is definitely not an overnight process. They posted about three hours ago on Twitter seemingly finalizing the ratings, but who knows, could still be some analysis behind the scenes.
It didn't sound final at all per their latest twitter post, as they specifically mentioned the ratings are still preliminary. They also mentioned that they are going to be in contact with tornado damage experts for further analysis, and that changes are possible in the coming weeks. Also, JAN said in reply to a question as to why finalization is taking so long, that "assessing tornadoes of this magnitude can not be taken lightly. It requires great deliberation and input from experts."

Reading between the lines, they are definitely still debating whether to upgrade further. Don't hold your breath though.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
1,825
Location
Saragossa, AL
I know the term tornado encompasses everything from a skinny rope that shuffles leaves to, well, that thing, but the 1.5 mile+ wide mesocyclone-on-the-ground tornadoes that obliterate everything are just another beast entirely.
 
Messages
304
Location
Lenexa, KS
I know the term tornado encompasses everything from a skinny rope that shuffles leaves to, well, that thing, but the 1.5 mile+ wide mesocyclone-on-the-ground tornadoes that obliterate everything are just another beast entirely.
A skinny rope tornado can sometimes obliterate everything in its path. However, they are extraordinarily rare but extremely wicked. Also cones and stovepipe tornadoes have been extremely violent as well.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
532
Location
Riverside, Ohio
NWS Jackson released this PNS recently detailing the tracks of the tornadoes in their CWA: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSJAN&e=202004172212

As suspected, the highest end part of the Bassfield track is that area along Graves Key Road and to the NE of that towards Seminary (around the area where that grove of trees was completely debarked and sheared off).
That completely slabbed, well-anchored cabin that was completely swept away near Graves Key Rd is probably responsible for the high-end EF4 rating. Note that they mentioned that the debarking in this area was only partial, and the ground scouring was lower-end. If this is the justification they use to keep it at high EF4, I can buy that honestly. Upon reading this, I don't think further upgrades are going to happen. I think contextual support around that structure may have fallen juuuust short of what is needed for an upgrade.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
1,825
Location
Saragossa, AL
I will say that I'm far more okay with this 190mph EF4 (if it ends up there) than the 190-200mph EF4s on 5/24/11 and at Vilonia. Still think EF5 potential was there, but not an obvious clear cut case with overwhelming evidence.
 
Last edited:

warneagle

Member
Messages
1,914
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
I will say that I'm far more okay with this 190mph EF4 (if it ends up there) than the 190-200mph EF4s on 5/24/11 and at Vilonia. Still think EF5 potential was there, but not an obvious clear cut case with overwhelming evidence.
Yeah this is nowhere near as egregious of nitpicking as Vilonia and the Chickasha and Goldsby tornadoes. Based on the photos I've seen here and on twitter I can accept that the contextual damage isn't as extreme as it was in other EF5s.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
532
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Is the rating still preliminary though?
It is, but don't expect any upgrades. What appeared to be a well-anchored frame home that was completely slabbed, actually turned out to be a tin-roofed cabin. I was calling for EF5 the other day, but upon reviewing further information, high-end EF4 is probably the right call.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 7)

Top