Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

[Justin Hindman]

If all the trends continue, wonder if we'll get a D3 Moderate. Probably enhanced, but models do seem to be in closer agreement...

Enhanced for sure, enough data warrants a moderate but they tend not to issue day 3 moderates much anymore, but if they did, this would be the system to do it.

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

...and I'm already starting to weigh out bunkering at home with only a hallway or going to the school for the shelter on Sunday. I wouldn't even think twice about it, but I have leukemia and the COVID-19 issues....not a great combination for the day for sure.

That's a terrible situation! My heart goes out to you!

 

[Kory]

GFS has fully caved. This simulated reflectivity looks like some of our bigger outbreaks.

 

[Equus]

Not the consensus I was hoping for, really

 

[Isaac Williams]

This one has that "look"

 

[Kory]

Our luck may have run out of with cutoffs meandering out west and sliding East as the polar jet races off. This is a textbook phase of the polar jet and cutoff which allows for rapid deepening of the system and strengthening wind fields.

 

[Equus]

So far the sounding sounding analogs I've seen for this... May 4 2003, Nov 10 2002, Dec 16 2000, Feb 21 1971. Literally any of those are very bad news

 

[Kory]

I think 4/24/10 is a good match as well.

 

[Kory]

Just check the instability we’re getting with high temps only in the low 70s. With the kind of warm air advection from the south alone, that is too cool. We’ve seen this song and dance before with surface temps...

 

[warneagle]

12z NAM is apocalyptic. This is near Greenville, MS.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

So far the sounding sounding analogs I've seen for this... May 4 2003, Nov 10 2002, Dec 16 2000, Feb 21 1971. Literally any of those are very bad news

May 4 2003 had ef4 come roaring through my town Jackson Tennessee with 18 fatalities had good pics that one

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Outlook probabilities will definitely move north, barring major changes at 00z.

 

[Kory]

Small 90% Sig Tor contour over East Central MS Sunday afternoon on the SREF.

 

[Richardjacks]

The whole setup give me a bit of a headache due to the fact this is based on the idea of a trough transitioning to a cut-off low, then rejoining the westerly flow as it pivots, opens up and ejects. There will be some interaction with the main jet as it joins the westerly flow that models are not going to get 100% right, especially if the cutoff low is either displaced even slightly or moves a little quicker. All this causes me to be cautious in going too far in predicting and overstating the threat. However, as of right now, I do believe the warm sector will be wide and perhaps uncontaminated- especially west of I 65. The fact that many people will already be home gives me some comfort in knowing that at any other time, the human toll could be higher. Also, I could see the "sweet spot" stretch from near Jackson Mississippi to near Birmingham, maybe a little north of there too.

 

[RollTide18]

I think 4/24/10 is a good match as well.

I remember that, that caused the Yazoo City tornado.

Let me ask, do you see any similarities to this upcoming setup and April 15, 2011?

 

[NWMSGuy]

Any thinking for Memphis area, northwest ms? Looks like we are currently just north of the slight risk area.

 

[Kory]

I remember that, that caused the Yazoo City tornado.

Let me ask, do you see any similarities to this upcoming setup and April 15, 2011?

4/24/10 and 4/15/2011 were both occluding troughs by the time they affected Dixie meaning wind fields weren't strengthening. This one won't be occluding, but I think the wind fields/fontal placement will be about the same as 4/24/10, which had multiple long track tornadoes.

 

[Kory]

80-85kt LLJ streak over AL between 00z and 03z Monday (so Sunday evening between 7pm and 10pm) on the Euro....

That is un-freakin-real when you combine that with the kind of instability we're having at face value...not even adjusted for surface temps being a bit too cool (still showing low to mid 70s area-wide).

 

[Brice]

If a HIGH RISK was needed, which is very slim, which ingredients would be needed to be stronger or more defined?

 

[Kory]

If a HIGH RISK was needed, which is very slim, which ingredients would be needed to be stronger or more defined?

It would not shock me to see a high risk. We won't know til the day of, but verbatim, these are pretty high parameters. The degree of how destabilized we get after the morning round will need to be determined, but there is some indication of subsidence behind the morning wave...meaning we will see some sunshine in the face of big-league warm air advection.