Equus
Member
Yeaaaaah the 18z NAM does not want to play nice at all. Never fun being able to bring up a PDS sounding basically anywhere in the warm sector. STP is maxed out in a worryingly large area
Even worse, any morning convection/cold pool could lay out boundaries that make things even worse if advection is stronger than forecast (as is typical) - there's a fascinating thesis paper that I think of every time there might be early convection that laid out a case that the highest end corridor of violent tornadoes on 4/27 was enhanced by the morning convection boundaries. Assuming the environment has time to recover of course, but looks like we would have time to do it with the models continuing to slow
Even worse, any morning convection/cold pool could lay out boundaries that make things even worse if advection is stronger than forecast (as is typical) - there's a fascinating thesis paper that I think of every time there might be early convection that laid out a case that the highest end corridor of violent tornadoes on 4/27 was enhanced by the morning convection boundaries. Assuming the environment has time to recover of course, but looks like we would have time to do it with the models continuing to slow
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