warneagle
Member
The forecast soundings on the 06z GFS is just as nasty as the ones Euro and UKMET have been for the last few days. Yikes.
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The only question I have right now is how far inland the volatile warm sector gets.
UKMET does show an ongoing complex of storms over north Alabama similar to a 4/15/2011 set up...stunting the northward progression of the unstable air past I-20/59.From what I can tell the Euro is still trending slower --even with last night's run with the trough...if that is right, the GFS still has significant catching up to do. If the Euro is right, the warm sector will likely be further inland than shown...also it is tapping an area that has had a steady stream of deep tropical moisture from the Pacific.
That’s always been the question and will remain the question.
Can it? Sure. However, questions about surface low position and track, potential rainfall ahead of the warm front, and a few other things will ultimately determine the warm sector. Personally, I believe a quality warm sector will push farther north than the GFS shows. Similar to the Euro. Plenty can change though.Can the warm sector make it inland to I-40 in TN on Sunday and north of I-40 in NC or into VA overnight into Monday?
That just brings back all kind of feels seeing that. Will never forget seeing something like that before.We are ALREADY having 75% sig tor contours on the SREF...87 hours out. That is certainly rare.
I’m hoping somehow these sims are overdone. Thanks.6z GFS run is in, first glance looks dire for S MS/S AL, insane hodos on the simulated soundings
West of Selma
Jackson, MS area
6z GFS run, first glance looks dire for S MS/S AL, insane hodos on the simulated soundings
West of Selma
Jackson, MS area