Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[joshoctober16]

my god the Supercell paramater and SRH....

also that hodo shape is insane.

 

[Kds86z]

Looks like a CU field developed in SW OK over the last hour.

Good to see you posting! @Sluggerwx

 

[TH2002]

Yeah, backing the SPC and what multiple users here have said.

Is it possible for strong to violent tornadoes to come out of a 10% hatch? Absolutely. Has it happened before? I’m sure it has. At the same time, does that mean it’s actually likely? Not necessarily, but we shall see.

 

[wx_guy]

View attachment 38199
my god the Supercell paramater and SRH....

also that hodo shape is insane.

This is about the highest parameter space I have ever seen, in some respects. Super yuck.

 

[tornado examiner]

The last EF5 occurred just inside a 10% hatched risk.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z HRRR hints at a possibility of OWS supercells/storms in Mississippi at peak heating tommorow.

 

[Maxis_s]

The only reasons why this is enhanced is because of lower storm coverage and uncertainty in storm initiation/formation. The parameter space will be there and any tornado will definitely have the potential to be strong or maybe even violent.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Gotta respect intense tornadoes knowing their not welcome in Missouri though… the cutoff right at the border has me

 

[wx_guy]

In regards to tomorrow and Thursday, my WRF-ARW model is nearing the end of a run in the next 30 minutes or so. I'll post the results when it's done. But right now, all eyes on Oklahoma!

 

[Bulkshear]

FWIW. Latest hrrr for tomorrow has moved super cells in western half tn bout 50 miles further east more nasvhvilke getting more involved now

I think it will be more than that honestly. The parameters are so strong and there isn’t a strong cap even further east. They support EF-3+ tornadoes for a large section of middle TN

 

[Ozonelayer]

The only reasons why this is enhanced is because of lower storm coverage and uncertainty in storm initiation/formation. The parameter space will be there and any tornado will definitely have the potential to be strong or maybe even violent.

Just to be clear, "Violent" would mean capable of producing EF-3+ winds?

 

[Muwx]

The last EF5 occurred just inside a 10% hatched risk.

While true, the wording in the outlooks that day in regards to tornadoes were not even in the same ball park as the wording today.

 

[Brice W]

Just to be clear, "Violent" would mean capable of producing EF-3+ winds?

A violent tornado is considered EF4+. Intense would be EF3+.

 

[Muwx]

Just to be clear, "Violent" would mean capable of producing EF-3+ winds?

Violent is EF4/5

 

[joshoctober16]

in 4 hours....

the almost perfect sounding with only the 1 km Shear being a bit low

VTP would be at 13.4 on this sounding.

 

[Ozonelayer]

A violent tornado is considered EF4+. Intense would be EF3+.

Violent is EF4/5

Thanks! I've been a little confused for a while now.

 

[wx_guy]

In general...


"Strong" / "Significant" = EF2+
"Intense" = EF3 +
"Violent" = EF4 +

There's not really any wording for EF5's, as they're so rare and exceptional.

 

[TH2002]

Just for fun, I asked Microsoft Copilot if an EF5 tornado has ever come out of an ENH risk area, and it responded saying that the 2013 Moore tornado did.

Well, I know off the top of my head that’s not true, because the ENH risk category didn’t even exist until late 2014.

Just a fair warning to everyone here, all the wannabe forecasters and other weather enthusiasts out there: generative AI is NOT a reliable source. Please do not use it in place of actual research.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 38201
in 4 hours....

the almost perfect sounding with only the 1 km Shear being a bit low

VTP would be at 13.4 on this sounding.