Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[UpperLevelLOL]

Well this explains why they stayed ENH

Storm initiation timing is a bit uncertain, especially given the
filtered insolation through a cirrus canopy. However, most guidance
has shown initiation after 22-23Z. Storm coverage remains a
question. These uncertainties are primarily driven by the
late-arriving moisture return. Mid-level ascent will remain quite
modest until after dark.

 

[joshoctober16]

Doesn't that break the record for VTP?

second highest ive ever seen only beaten by the EF5 moore 2013



who shockingly had a kind of low STPF compared to it

 

[Kds86z]

 

[US_Highway15]

Brandon Copic of FOX Weather just said on his stream that he believes it's a 80/20 chance of the cap breaking. Looks like the majority of chasers (including him) are hanging around El Reno.

 

[Maxis_s]

Looks like the majority of chasers (including him) are hanging around El Reno

I'm gonna start yelling at the clouds if they think of doing anything funny around there.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UK_EF4]

Latest models continue to trend more favorable with the trough ejection tomorrow - stronger, slower speed max closer to the warm sector. I am beginning to get very worried about tomorrow afternoon-evening across a large area. Might have some upgrades in CAM guidance come 00z, though the messiness of convection remains a lingering uncertainty.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[SmokeEater]

OUN says all signs point to initiation in SW OK, still at least an hour away though.

 

[US_Highway15]

OUN says all signs point to initiation in SW OK, still at least an hour away though.

Not surprised in the slightest due to the cumulus clouds developing.

 

[cg9450]

Doesn't that break the record for VTP?

Weren't Joplin and Moore 2013 around the 70s

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

In general...


"Strong" / "Significant" = EF2+
"Intense" = EF3 +
"Violent" = EF4 +

There's not really any wording for EF5's, as they're so rare and exceptional.

Ef5=Finger of God

 

[joshoctober16]

insane SCP of 44+ in 6 hours

some soundings have it over 60+

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

This seems concerning....CAPE and CINH overlayed on the satellite imagery.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[andyhb]

OUN says all signs point to initiation in SW OK, still at least an hour away though.

Man that would be almost a perfect time for initiation to maximize this threat.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's as good of a hodograph as you'll get.

 

[DanLarsen34]

View attachment 38214
insane SCP of 44+ in 6 hours

some soundings have it over 60+
View attachment 38216

The modeled helicity values are insane given the degree of modeled instability. This sounding reminds me of the Omaha sounding from the Pilger event.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[AJS]

I'm gonna start yelling at the clouds if they think of doing anything funny around there.

The last thing Oklahoma needs is an El Reno part 4.