• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

James Sm. said:
18z HRRR seems to be an uptick in potential for some parts of the northern mode (N IL, S WI), allowing for some CI in the afternoon after the morning convection clears, and putting a modest UH track over southern Milwaukee.
Click to expand...
Additionally, the NAM3km brings STP values much further north (and with much higher values) than most other models. 1743538622754.png
 
TH2002 said:
Just for fun, I asked Microsoft Copilot if an EF5 tornado has ever come out of an ENH risk area, and it responded saying that the 2013 Moore tornado did.

Well, I know off the top of my head that’s not true, because the ENH risk category didn’t even exist until late 2014.

Just a fair warning to everyone here, all the wannabe forecasters and other weather enthusiasts out there: generative AI is NOT a reliable source. Please do not use it in place of actual research.
Click to expand...
Good catch. The Moore Tornado did occur in a 10% hatched area, so technically if the five category system had been in place that day, it would have occurred in the equivalent of an enhanced risk today.
 
1000000894.jpg

here we go batman GIF
 
I am a little confused by when the tornadic weather (if it happens) will occur. It seems like I've seem posts both about things breaking out in the evening before sunset, and also posts about things being dangerous after midnight, so I must be misunderstanding something. What is the timeframe for the "main event" storms to develop, and for when they might produce tornadoes?
 
SUMMARY...Cumulus activity is increasing on the dryline in western
Oklahoma. This area is being monitored for storm initiation.
Supercells capable of large/very-large hail, tornadoes (possibly
strong), and severe gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues in the southern Plains this
afternoon. Low 60s F dewpoints have reached the Red River/southern
Oklahoma. Mid 60s F dewpoints lag farther south in the DFW
Metroplex. Cumulus have become more numerous in southwest Oklahoma
and recent Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a few towers
occasionally deepening. While this activity is currently developing
within upper 50s F dewpoints, greater moisture resides to the east.

Storm initiation timing is a bit uncertain, especially given the
filtered insolation through a cirrus canopy. However, most guidance
has shown initiation after 22-23Z. Storm coverage remains a
question. These uncertainties are primarily driven by the
late-arriving moisture return. Mid-level ascent will remain quite
modest until after dark. However, the wind profile strongly supports
discrete supercells with an attendant risk for large/very-large hail
and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible in this
environment and would become more likely if a mature storm moves
into increasing low-level moisture to the east. Low-level theta-e
advection should slow/offset the increase in nocturnal CIN.

Once there is more clarity on initiation timing and storm coverage,
a watch will be needed later this afternoon/early evening.
Click to expand...
 
Maxis_s said:
View attachment 38206
I am very worried about initiation past midnight.
Click to expand...
haven't seen something like this since the historic outbreak a month ago, again unsure why it isn't saying PDS TOR.

only non very good part to this sounding is the kind of low 3 km Shear.

honestly looks like a historic outbreak sounding, however the strange shape of the hodo might be messing up this sounding so who knows.

(edit) scary fact that you can not see but the VTP is at 81.5
1743539139397.png
 
joshoctober16 said:
haven't seen something like this since the historic outbreak a month ago, again unsure why it isn't saying PDS TOR.

only non very good part to this sounding is the kind of low 3 km Shear.

honestly looks like a historic outbreak sounding, however the strange shape of the hodo might be messing up this sounding so who knows.

(edit) scary fact that you can not see but the VTP is at 81.5
View attachment 38209
Click to expand...
Doesn't that break the record for VTP?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top