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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

lake.effect said:
Haven't looked to closely at the model runs for Wednesday, but ceiling looks alarmingly high.
Does anyone see any possible failure modes for Wednesday? What's the probable ceiling for this event?
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Northern portion of the risk area gets borked by morning convection and the southern part by veered low-level flow (similar to yesterday).

Certainly potential there but a lot of question marks remain. However the same was true for March 14 at this juncture.
 
^Given these parameters, it seems a high risk is definitely on the table for Wednesday for a pretty large area. Although forcing and capping may cause initiation issues farther west.

Hype surrounding this event (and the subsequent days, which also look significant) seems lower than the March 15th event. Curious about why that is, since to my eyes this could be on par with that event in terms of magnitude.

Farther east, around the mid South / Ohio Valley, forcing is not an issue but there is a relatively moderate cap which may influence initiation...but not likely given the modeled LIs and instability...and will likely help keep storms relatively discrete for a good period of time.

Overall, I'd say there's a conditional mod/high risk for central OK/north-central TX and a probable mod/high for the mid south.

Pros, what do you think?
 
lake.effect said:
^Given these parameters, it seems a high risk is definitely on the table for Wednesday for a pretty large area. Although forcing and capping may cause initiation issues farther west.

Hype surrounding this event (and the subsequent days, which also look significant) seems lower than the March 15th event. Curious about why that is, since to my eyes this could be on par with that event in terms of magnitude.

Farther east, around the mid South / Ohio Valley, forcing is not an issue but there is a relatively moderate cap which may influence initiation...but not likely given the modeled LIs and instability.

Overall, I'd say there's a conditional mod/high risk for central OK/north-central TX and a probable mod/high for the mid south.

Pros, what do you think?
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Part of that is 3/14-3/15 was our first big system of the year, but also was impacting the location of many users on here. We have a lot of people from Alabama and Mississippi, which was the main area on 3/15. We also had an event yesterday while the week leading up to 3/14-3/15 we didn’t have any.
 
AJS said:
View attachment 37940
That is by far the largest 30% hatched area I have ever seen. I almost certainly expect the SPC to upgrade to moderate.
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I mean they explicitly said they considered it for today so yeah I’d be shocked if they didn’t tomorrow barring some kind of radical downtrend.
 
Mrgolfman7070 said:
I think if a secondary slp can develop, that would help further south.
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A secondary low pressure isn’t necessary in this situation. However, that being said if one were to develop as mentioned in the day three outlook, that would be a similar situation that we had on that infamous day that shall not be named.
 
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lake.effect said:
Haven't looked to closely at the model runs for Wednesday, but ceiling looks alarmingly high.
Does anyone see any possible failure modes for Wednesday? What's the probable ceiling for this event?
Click to expand...
Storm mode is a big one. Especially with parallel shear vectors. You kind of saw this in action yesterday, cells immediately congealing or destructive mergers the moment they reached maturity. Here is the portion in the outlook that caught my eye:

Some boundary parallel flow is likely suggesting a mixed mode of cellular and bowing segments


You can have all the parameters in the world, but if storm mode doesn’t cooperate it can really cap the ceiling of an event.
 
ColdFront said:
Storm mode is a big one. Especially with parallel shear vectors. You kind of saw this in action yesterday, cells immediately congealing or destructive mergers the moment they reached maturity. Here is the portion in the outlook that caught my eye:

Some boundary parallel flow is likely suggesting a mixed mode of cellular and bowing segments


You can have all the parameters in the world, but if storm mode doesn’t cooperate it can really cap the ceiling of an event.
Click to expand...
I guess we root for no or little parallel flow for a bigger event, amongst other things also lol
 
Mrgolfman7070 said:
I guess we root for no or little parallel flow for a bigger event, amongst other things also lol
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You want perpendicular deep layer shear vectors relative to where the storms will initiate vs parallel.

Storm mode is always a question over here vs the plains before any event.

A good, stout EML can also assist with storm mode
 
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