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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Considering this event- what are the major prospects looking for the North Texas region. I've seen that all parameters for tornadoes have been met but capping inversion has inhibited development; as of this recent event. Concerning this event, what seems to be the outlook for the DFW area?
 
Wind Driven Coconut said:
Haven’t had any time to look at anything, did models downtrend for Wednesday? It’s been fairly quiet in this thread…
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I think there are a number of question marks for Wednesday that have yet to be resolved, and possibly won't be until the day of the event (as usual).
 
Ebaad Jaffery said:
Considering this event- what are the major prospects looking for the North Texas region. I've seen that all parameters for tornadoes have been met but capping inversion has inhibited development; as of this recent event. Concerning this event, what seems to be the outlook for the DFW area?
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Dallas is in the 15% Day 4 risk. Primary threat should be east of you but certainly would be a day to stay weather-aware.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Dallas is in the 15% Day 4 risk. Primary threat should be east of you but certainly would be a day to stay weather-aware.
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How about the Day 3 Slight risk? It seems to have decent potential:
"
...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great
Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet
will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a
intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains
during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level
moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will
advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with
a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be
in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though
lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline
development.

At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early
evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of
the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a
risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells
that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic,
as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase.

"
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Pretty much loaded gun soundings over large area. I k now that
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Soundings just tell you the parameter space. That's important, but equally important are factors relegating storm mode, such as initiating boundaries and the shear vectors across them, or even when/where storms fire at all, such as timing of shortwaves to initiate convection.
 
Middle TN Tornado Threat:

So I did some homework and this is what I came up with:
Supercells are likely initially but could form into a QLCS due to:
55 knots bulk shear
High SRH (400 m²/s²) and EHI (2-3) (strong rotation potential)
Moderate CAPE 1500 J/kg and steep lapse rates 7.5°C/km

The Potential extists for an evolution into QLCS later in the event due to:
Weak CIN (-12), meaning storms may develop quickly and interact with each other
850 mb winds out of the south, which could promote upscale growth into a line
Tornado Threat Breakdown:
If storms stay discrete EF2-EF3 tornadoes are likely, with possible EF4s if CAPE increases. We would need about a 500 j/kg increase at minimum for a violent scenario.
If storms merge into a QLCS, tornadoes will still occur, however, they may be shorter lived and embedded within the line.
 
Really interesting that this event follows the current event, in roughly the same areas, so there's a real chance of fatigue setting in. Ultimately, though, it's *possible* (but far from guaranteed) that Wednesday is the dominant threat here. A huge area has the potential to be affected by adverse conditions.
 
ColdFront said:
That could stay capped in some instances. I think we’ll have corridors of tornadic/severe storms, but over the entire area? I’m skeptical
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It’s been a while seen such a system with high potential over broad area …. But I’m curious see how SPC handles the day 3 outlook early in the morning
 
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