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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Ebaad Jaffery said:
How about the Day 3 Slight risk? It seems to have decent potential:
"
...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great
Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet
will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a
intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains
during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level
moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will
advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with
a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be
in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though
lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline
development.

At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early
evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of
the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a
risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells
that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic,
as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase.

"
Click to expand...

Yeah, definitely keep an eye on that one as well.
 
North Texas being involved for day 3 and day 4. You've got my attention.
z77h8jcuat7e1.gif
 
tornado examiner said:
If the cap breaks on Tuesday, watch out for the potential of a major tornado event in Oklahoma.
Click to expand...
Sheesh, yeah these kinematic soundings are unreal. Like legitmately violent. This is a textbook classic loaded gun scenario if the cap were to break. One could argue that the couple on the bottom are a bit saturated, but these still look absolutely unreal nonetheless. Taken from C Oklahoma.

1000000816.png1000000819.png1000000820.png
 
Didn't realize til looking back at it, but the D1 CSU TOR Props for 3/15 was only red hatched and it was high risk. So still really impressive that we are seeing that right now for D3. The D2 for 3/15 was only like a 3-4 county wide .3-.45, so not much different. The high put out on D2 was based mostly around the red hatched.
 
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