2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

Invest 90A was upgraded to Cyclonic Storm 02A overnight by the JTWC. Recently the IMD named the system Shakhti, and the name is finally used.

 

[Atlantic]

An invest in the Western Pacific has become Tropical Depression 28W and the current forecast expects it to move westwards towards Japan before a potential recurve close to Japan occurs beyond the current forecast period. 28W has good potential to become another major typhoon later on in the forecast. Next WPAC international name is Halong and the next Philippine name is Quedan

There is another invest behind 28W which could become a strong cyclone as well in a week or so as it tracks towards the weakness that 28W is leaving behind in the high pressure ridge. The next name after Halong is Nakri


Invest 99E in the EPAC is up to 100/100 in formation chances and it is likely to become Tropical Depression Sixteen-E later today at 5 pm EST. The next EPAC name is Priscilla

Another disturbance behind 99E is up to 0/60 in formation chances, and it could graze the Mexican coast line later on next week. The next name after Priscilla is Raymond

In the Atlantic we have a tropical wave in the MDR with 10/60 formation chances right now, and models are currently thinking a recurve scenario is most likely, however, the the system hasn’t even become a TC yet. The next name is the ATL is Jerry

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Shakhti has reached 65 kts (75 mph) and it has become the first hurricane force TC in the North Indian Ocean this year.

 

[Atlantic]

JMA upgrades what is TD “b” (JTWC’s Tropical Depression 28W) to Tropical Storm Halong.

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 2522 HALONG (2522) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 25.1N 143.8E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 24.7N 141.0E 57NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT GUST 060KT 48HF 061800UTC 25.1N 138.0E 100NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT GUST 070KT 72HF 071800UTC 25.8N 134.0E 160NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT GUST 085KT 96HF 081800UTC 26.3N 133.2E 200NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT GUST 100KT 120HF 091800UTC 26.9N 132.6E 250NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT GUST 100KT =

 

[Atlantic]

ATCF has updated for 18Z today, and Invest 99E has become Tropical Storm Priscilla, so the Eastern Pacific gets another one. Current intensity as is shown here is 40 kts (45 mph)

 

[Atlantic]

Both Octave and Priscilla are now hurricanes. Octave’s fate seems to be getting sheared apart and absorbed by Priscilla in the near future.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 95W has become Tropical Depression 29W, and almost simultaneously JMA gave it the name Nakri.

So it is Tropical Depression Nakri by the JTWC right now.

 

[Atlantic]

Nakri is a Tropical Storm now, and it seems likely to follow a similar track as the currently active Typhoon Halong. It could become a typhoon itself as it recurves out to sea.

 

[Atlantic]

Nakri has entered the Philippines area of Responsibility and has received the name Quedan.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 90E became Tropical Depression Seventeen-E earlier this morning, and the 2pm intermediate advisory upgraded it to Tropical Storm Raymond.

 

[Atlantic]

EPAC and ATL stats since 2020 using the 1991-2020 average for NS:
——————————
Key -
Above average = Red
Average = Gray
Below average = Blue
——————————

2024 -
ATL (18 NS) (+4)
EPAC (12 NS, with an additional unnamed 13th storm) (-2)
———————————————
2023 -
ATL (19 NS, 1 additional unnamed SS for 20 NS total) (+6)
EPAC (17 NS) (+2)
———————————————
2022 -
ATL (14 NS) (0)
EPAC (17 NS, but two ATL storms crossed over and made it 19 NS) (+4)
———————————————
2021 -
ATL (21 NS) (+7)
EPAC (19 NS) (+4)
———————————————
2020 -
ATL (30 NS, record high for the basin) (+16)
EPAC (16 NS, 1 TD was upgraded to an unnamed TS for a total of 17 NS) (+2)

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 96L was unexpected introduced last night alongside a TWO on the NHC homepage. It could become a brief SS despite being at nearly 45N before quickly disappearing not long afterwards.



Next name on the list in the basin is Karen

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 96L has made the transition to a subtropical storm. It is now Subtropical Storm Karen, and it likely to very short-lived.

 

[Atlantic]

We have Invest 97L recently designated in the MDR of the Atlantic. It could become a TC as it recurves out to sea.

Next name is Lorenzo

 

[Atlantic]

Having a hard time tracking Typhoon Nakri due to a satellite outage, but the intensity is 75 kts currently.

 

[Atlantic]

We have Invest 97L recently designated in the MDR of the Atlantic. It could become a TC as it recurves out to sea.

Next name is Lorenzo

Invest 97L is now Tropical Storm Lorenzo. It is not expected impact land.

We should be watching a wave behind Lorenzo for the potential to become a Caribbean TC in the near future.

 

[Kds86z]