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- #1,241
This system has become Tropical Cyclone 08P. Next name in the South Pacific remains Urmil.
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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion
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- #1,242
On Invest 93S (Tropical Low 03U by BoM) from BoM:
Tropical Low 03U continues to slowly develop in the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia. Deep convection near the centre has increased over the past 24 hours, and is now displaying some curvature. Low confidence in the centre position, but it is analysed east of the main convective band, to the near south of some new convective development. A 1611 UTC OSCAT pass suggests a centre further west under the broader convection, but this is likely influenced by NWP. Intensity analysed at 40 knots based on the 1411 ASCAT pass, which depicted an area of gales in the southwestern quadrant though somewhat removed from the estimated centre position, these are likely part of the main circulation of 03U. Dvorak analysis: curved band of approximately 0.3 wrap yields DT 2.0. FT = CI = 2.0 with MET not yet available. Objective aids not yet available. 03U has been slow moving in a weak steering regime for the past few days, and this should continue through Wednesday. From Thursday, a narrow mid-level steering ridge will become established to the south and gradually strengthen, which will steer the system to the west or west-southwest well into next week. 03U is a broad system and has been slow to consolidate. It currently lies just south of a shear gradient generated by strong upper level easterlies to the north, and this is reflected in the main deep convection being displaced west of the low level centre. As the system drifts further south, conditions for development should improve as it moves further under the upper ridge, causing deep layer shear to reduce. At the same time, a distant upper trough to the southwest may aid in enhancing poleward outflow. The trend in numerical guidance is favouring development in the medium term, and the chances that this system will ultimately develop into a tropical cyclone are increasing.
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 Coordinated Universal Time.The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC.
Tropical Low 03U continues to slowly develop in the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia. Deep convection near the centre has increased over the past 24 hours, and is now displaying some curvature. Low confidence in the centre position, but it is analysed east of the main convective band, to the near south of some new convective development. A 1611 UTC OSCAT pass suggests a centre further west under the broader convection, but this is likely influenced by NWP. Intensity analysed at 40 knots based on the 1411 ASCAT pass, which depicted an area of gales in the southwestern quadrant though somewhat removed from the estimated centre position, these are likely part of the main circulation of 03U. Dvorak analysis: curved band of approximately 0.3 wrap yields DT 2.0. FT = CI = 2.0 with MET not yet available. Objective aids not yet available. 03U has been slow moving in a weak steering regime for the past few days, and this should continue through Wednesday. From Thursday, a narrow mid-level steering ridge will become established to the south and gradually strengthen, which will steer the system to the west or west-southwest well into next week. 03U is a broad system and has been slow to consolidate. It currently lies just south of a shear gradient generated by strong upper level easterlies to the north, and this is reflected in the main deep convection being displaced west of the low level centre. As the system drifts further south, conditions for development should improve as it moves further under the upper ridge, causing deep layer shear to reduce. At the same time, a distant upper trough to the southwest may aid in enhancing poleward outflow. The trend in numerical guidance is favouring development in the medium term, and the chances that this system will ultimately develop into a tropical cyclone are increasing.
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 Coordinated Universal Time.The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC.
Kds86z
Member
So I guess this thread will soon be done…
- Thread starter
- #1,244
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- #1,245
JTWC upgrades Invest 93S (Tropical Low 03U by BoM) to a High chance invest. It’s safe to say we will likely see 93S become Tropical Cyclone 09S soon.
WTXS21 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 113.3E TO 14.5S 107.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT AND
RAPIDLY ROTATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN A 162143Z SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH GFS
CONSOLIDATING MOST QUICKLY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180200Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 113.3E TO 14.5S 107.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT AND
RAPIDLY ROTATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN A 162143Z SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH GFS
CONSOLIDATING MOST QUICKLY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180200Z.
//
NNNN
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- #1,246
It took a few days, but 93S is now Tropical Cyclone 09S.
Last edited:
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- #1,247
Tropical Cyclone 09S 2025-26’s formation marks the JTWC’s second earliest ninth designated cyclone in the SHEM, which occurred last night (December 17th). It is only behind the infamous 1996-97 season, which saw the JTWC designate the ninth cyclone on December 9th.
Here is the table below of all the days going back to the 1975-76 season that the JTWC designated the ninth SHEM cyclone of the season below:
Here is the table below of all the days going back to the 1975-76 season that the JTWC designated the ninth SHEM cyclone of the season below:
| 1996-97 - December 9th 2025-26 - December 17th (Current season) 1983-84, 1991-92 - December 20th 1998-99 - December 23rd 1977-78 - December 26th 1997-98 - December 27th 2007-08 - December 31st 1989-90, 2018-19 - January 2nd 2001-02, 2020-21 - January 3rd 2002-03, 2004-05 - January 8th 2024-25 - January 9th 1975-76, 1984-85, 1992-93, 1993-94 - January 11th 1980-81 - January 12th 1981-82, 2012-13 - January 13th 1982-83 - January 15th 1986-87, 2013-14 - January 16th 1976-77, 2008-09, 2022-23 - Jan 18th 1979-80, 1985-86 - January 19th 2019-20 - January 21st 2009-10 - January 22nd 1987-88, 1994-95, 2010-11 - Jan 23rd 2006-07 - January 24th 2005-06, 2011-12 - January 25th 1995-96, 2003-04 - January 26th 2014-15 - January 27th 1999-00, 2015-16 - January 28th 1978-79 - January 29th 2021-22 - January 30th 2023-24 - January 31st 1988-89 - February 6th 2017-18 - February 8th 2000-01 - February 12th 1990-91 - February 17th 2016-17 - March 3rd |
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- #1,249
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Grant is still going 9 days after formation, and it is still below hurricane-force, reminding me of the Atlantic’s Tropical Storm Philippe in 2023. However, Grant’s current intensity by the JTWC is 60 kts (70 mph), just below hurricane-force, and it is expected by the JTWC to become a hurricane-force cyclone within the next 12 or so hours and reach a peak later on of 80 kts (90 mph), just shy of Category 2 on the SSHWS.
The cyclone has crossed 90E within the last 12 hours or so and moved from the Australian Region and into the South-West Indian Ocean, leaving the jurisdiction of BoM and coming under the watch of Meteo-France. Grant is the first cyclone to exist in the SWIO since Chenge’s dissipation in late October.
The cyclone has crossed 90E within the last 12 hours or so and moved from the Australian Region and into the South-West Indian Ocean, leaving the jurisdiction of BoM and coming under the watch of Meteo-France. Grant is the first cyclone to exist in the SWIO since Chenge’s dissipation in late October.
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- #1,251
Invest 96S (TL 08U by BoM) has become Tropical Cyclone 10S by the JTWC. BoM now expects 08U/10S to go straight from tropical low status straight to a Category 2 tropical cyclone on the Australian Scale and the JTWC expects a 65 kt (75 mph) peak from the cyclone as it curves southwards and then southeastwards towards the Northern Territory.
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- #1,252
Kds86z
Member
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- #1,254
Grant intensified to 120 kts (140 mph) this morning and it is a Category 4 on the SSHWS and an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Meteo-France’s scale. No further intensification is expected, and steady weakening is forecast from here on out as it continues tracking westwards and traversing the Southern Indian Ocean.
Hayley has intensified more than forecast initially by the JTWC, and it has become the third Severe Tropical Cyclone of the Australian Region season according to BoM. BOM expects it to remain a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale though landfall in the Northern Territory, but they do not discount the possibility of Hayley reaching Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone status on the Australian scale briefly pre-landfall. JTWC places the current intensity at 75 kts (85 mph), a Category 1 on the SSHWS, and expects it to peak at 90 kts (105 mph) now on the SSHWS.
Hayley has intensified more than forecast initially by the JTWC, and it has become the third Severe Tropical Cyclone of the Australian Region season according to BoM. BOM expects it to remain a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale though landfall in the Northern Territory, but they do not discount the possibility of Hayley reaching Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone status on the Australian scale briefly pre-landfall. JTWC places the current intensity at 75 kts (85 mph), a Category 1 on the SSHWS, and expects it to peak at 90 kts (105 mph) now on the SSHWS.
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- #1,255
Of course we have another RI until landfall storm happening, because that’s exactly what Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley is doing, with BoM having recently upgraded it to a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian Scale and the JTWC upgrading the current intensity to 90 kts (105 mph) with a new forecast peak of 95 kts (110 mph) and it appears that Hayley could possibly be the the last major cyclone globally of 2025 if it keeps overachieving its intensity like it has been.
I had honestly thought that Grant would be the last major cyclone globally of 2025, but that was before Hayley started overachieving.
I had honestly thought that Grant would be the last major cyclone globally of 2025, but that was before Hayley started overachieving.
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- #1,256
Invest 99P (Tropical Disturbance 04F by FMS) and Invest 90S (Tropical Low 10U by BoM) are both High chance invests in the South Pacific (99P) and in the South Indian Ocean off of Jakarta (90S)
Invest 99P
Invest 90S
The 12Z ATCF for 90S was updated from 30 kts (35 mph) to 35 kts (40 mph), so it almost guaranteed that 90S will likely become Tropical Cyclone 11S later today. The next name in the Australian Region is Iggy.
In the South Pacific, the next name is still Urmil.
Invest 99P
WTPS21 PGTW 310200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300153ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 165.2W TO 18.6S 165.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 165.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8S 167.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 165.2W, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST
OF MANU ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 302026Z ASCAT REVELED A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 99P WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C), MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 99P TRACKING SOUTHWARD
AND MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPS21 PGTW 300200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300153ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 165.2W TO 18.6S 165.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 165.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8S 167.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 165.2W, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST
OF MANU ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 302026Z ASCAT REVELED A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 99P WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C), MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 99P TRACKING SOUTHWARD
AND MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPS21 PGTW 300200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z.
//
NNNN
Invest 90S
WTXS21 PGTW 311330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 104.8E TO 14.2S 112.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.3S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM NORTH
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310854Z 37 GHZ GMI IMAGE EMPHASIZES
THE CLOUD BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011330Z.
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 104.8E TO 14.2S 112.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.3S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM NORTH
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310854Z 37 GHZ GMI IMAGE EMPHASIZES
THE CLOUD BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011330Z.
NNNN
In the South Pacific, the next name is still Urmil.
- Thread starter
- #1,257
As I expected, the JTWC initiated warnings on Invest 90S as Tropical Cyclone 11S. It is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone.
This may be the last post in this thread because midnight tonight we will cross into 2026.
Tropical Cyclone 11S is likely the final tropical cyclone to form in 2025, and 2025 has been such an incredible year for me to track.
This may be the last post in this thread because midnight tonight we will cross into 2026.
Tropical Cyclone 11S is likely the final tropical cyclone to form in 2025, and 2025 has been such an incredible year for me to track.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Nope
2025 has finally just about ended. In fact, that TS mentioned above I believe is technically a 2026 storm as it is already 2026 over there.
2025. What a year for the tropics.
The Atlantic. THREE Category Fives. THREE! The most since 2005! And one of those was a sub-900 monster. We wait for Melissa's TCR with bated breath. Erin and Humberto were no slouches either, despite not hitting land. Gabrielle, too, was an underrated success story, and was doubly impressive because there was a not insignificant period of time where it didn't appear to be a TC at all. Literally only one single hurricane (Imelda) failed to reach MH status.
Remarkably, there were no hurricane landfalls on the US this year, and we were one Melissa away from no hurricane landfalls in the entire basin. 2025 - the next 1981. Regardless, Melissa ensures the List 5 Curse of always retiring a name will continue.
The Eastern Pacific. It existed! I did not expect Erick to happen. Nor did I expect Iona to happen, or that it would get its TCR before the year was out. The EPac broke its 2 year long C5 streak. Oof.
The Western Pacific. Relative underperformance. There was a single C5 cyclone (Ragasa), a few C4s, and a lot of weaker storms. Lots of destructive weaklings though. We have almost certainly seen the last storms named Wipha, Kalmaegi and Fung-wong, along with possibly storms like Ragasa, Bualoi and Matmo.
The North Indian Ocean. Not a single hurricane strength cyclone formed. The NIO did spawn a storm that killed 1,500+ people, though.
The SHem. A productive year! Lots of cyclones, lots of strong ones. I haven't kept tabs on this region much, though.
- Thread starter
- #1,259
“2025 has finally just about ended. In fact, that TS mentioned above I believe is technically a 2026 storm as it is already 2026 over there.”
I mean that’s fair. So that would mean that Hayley was the final storm of 2025, though If you go by UTC time, then 11S is technically the last storm.
2025 preformed incredibly in the Atlantic with three Category 5 hurricanes, all three of which were sub-920 mb interestingly. Erin and Melissa stand out to me the most because of their appearances, with Erin looking like something out of the Western Pacific, and Melissa just looking like upper echelon powerhouse Category 5 (I can’t even describe Melissa, it was just mind blowing insane to track) and it made 2025 the second year in a row to feature a sub-900 mb storm after Milton in 2024, which I also tracked.
2024 and 2025 both had at least two Category 5s and at least one sub-900 mb storm, the first occurrence since the 1930s in HURDAT data.