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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Literally everything is spinning in the Western Pacific right now due to a monsoon event blowing up!
IMG_7423.jpeg
From left to right: Invest 99W, Invest 90W, Tropical Depression 10W (Dante) (Formerly Invest 97W, now TD 10W) and on the far right, Invest 98W.
 
Last edited:
Atlantic said:
Literally everything is spinning in the Western Pacific right now due to a monsoon event blowing up!
View attachment 45329
From left to right: Invest 98W, Invest 90W, Tropical Depression 10W (Dante) (Formerly Invest 97W, now TD 10W) and on the far right, Invest 99W.
Click to expand...
Lewis Hamilton Wow GIF by First We Feast
 
Invest 98W could become an OTS powerful typhoon and the JTWC has it at medium chance right now. This system is expected to stay out to sea other then affecting the Mariana Islands early on.

Invest 99W is at medium chance too and it could stall around the top end of the Philippines before possibly getting absorbed into the monsoonal flow.

Invest 90W is new and it hasn’t been noticed on the JTWC home page map yet.

Former Invest 97W became Tropical Depression 10W and it received the Philippine name Dante. 10W is expected to strengthen into a short-lived TS before getting absorbed into the monsoonal flow.

Wipha has moved inland over northern Vietnam and it is dissipating, however its remnants could cross over into the Bay of Bengal and possibly power a monsoon low expected to form here soon.

Here is the most recent JTWC homepage tropical weather map:
IMG_7428.jpeg
 
The NHC and the CPHC have noted an AoI that is expected to develop into a disturbance in a few days. The reason the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has in correlation with the National Hurricane Center noted this disturbance is because it is centered from roughly 145*W to 135*W, and the Central Pacific begins at 140*W and ends at the International Dateline (180*W)

The wording is the same from both sides, but I’ll show it from both:

National Hurricane Center side:
IMG_7438.jpeg


Central Pacific Hurricane Center side:
IMG_7439.jpeg
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 98W could become an OTS powerful typhoon and the JTWC has it at medium chance right now. This system is expected to stay out to sea other then affecting the Mariana Islands early on.

Invest 99W is at medium chance too and it could stall around the top end of the Philippines before possibly getting absorbed into the monsoonal flow.

Invest 90W is new and it hasn’t been noticed on the JTWC home page map yet.

Former Invest 97W became Tropical Depression 10W and it received the Philippine name Dante. 10W is expected to strengthen into a short-lived TS before getting absorbed into the monsoonal flow.

Wipha has moved inland over northern Vietnam and it is dissipating, however its remnants could cross over into the Bay of Bengal and possibly power a monsoon low expected to form here soon.

Here is the most recent JTWC homepage tropical weather map:
View attachment 45330
Click to expand...
oh i see gotcha good to know
 
Atlantic said:
The NHC and the CPHC have noted an AoI that is expected to develop into a disturbance in a few days. The reason the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has in correlation with the National Hurricane Center noted this disturbance is because it is centered from roughly 145*W to 135*W, and the Central Pacific begins at 140*W and ends at the International Dateline (180*W)

The wording is the same from both sides, but I’ll show it from both:

National Hurricane Center side:
View attachment 45331


Central Pacific Hurricane Center side:
View attachment 45332
Click to expand...
gotcha
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 98W could become an OTS powerful typhoon and the JTWC has it at medium chance right now. This system is expected to stay out to sea other then affecting the Mariana Islands early on.

Invest 99W is at medium chance too and it could stall around the top end of the Philippines before possibly getting absorbed into the monsoonal flow.

Invest 90W is new and it hasn’t been noticed on the JTWC home page map yet.

Former Invest 97W became Tropical Depression 10W and it received the Philippine name Dante. 10W is expected to strengthen into a short-lived TS before getting absorbed into the monsoonal flow.

Wipha has moved inland over northern Vietnam and it is dissipating, however its remnants could cross over into the Bay of Bengal and possibly power a monsoon low expected to form here soon.

Here is the most recent JTWC homepage tropical weather map:
View attachment 45330
Click to expand...
Thanks @Atlantic
 
Invest 99W has now been upgraded to high chance and the JTWC has issued a TCFA on it.
WTPN21 PGTW 222130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N 121.5E TO 15.9N 119.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 222130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 121.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY
65 NM NORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY AND A 221941Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM CALAYAN, PHILIPPINES INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 7 MB FROM 1004MB TO 997MB WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 12 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-31C.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT SHOWING WINDS OF
30-40 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232130Z.//
NNNN
IMG_7470.gif
 
Let’s do it again! Round 2 of ex-93L!
IMG_7541.jpeg
 
10W becomes Francisco according to JMA.

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎230000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2507 ‎FRANCISCO ‎(2507) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎230000UTC ‎20.4N ‎130.4E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎350NM ‎NORTHEAST ‎150NM ‎SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎231200UTC ‎22.0N ‎128.5E ‎40NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
24HF ‎ ‎240000UTC ‎23.6N ‎126.8E ‎57NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
48HF ‎ ‎250000UTC ‎25.9N ‎123.7E ‎115NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
72HF ‎ ‎260000UTC ‎27.6N ‎121.2E ‎160NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=

Also ATCF has changed 99W to 11W, snd we now have another tropical depression.
 
Tropical Depression 11W first warning cone and forecast intensities:
IMG_7578.jpeg
IMG_7577.jpeg
 
11W (which later became Typhoon Shanshan) did not form until August 21st last year. 11W just formed today, July 22nd. This season is several typhoons and several names ahead of last season.

We are ahead of schedule compared to 2024 in general right now.
 
And may I present to you the MJO in action. Phase 5. We should get a spurt of activity in the Eastern Pacific then the Atlantic late month into August as the MJO continues to rotate around.
 

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Atlantic said:
Tropical Depression 11W first warning cone and forecast intensities:
View attachment 45342
View attachment 45343
Click to expand...
The official warning on Tropical Depression 11W;
WTPN33 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222121ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.8N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.0N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.1N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 120.1E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
254 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (WIPHA) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 222130).//
NNNN
 
JMA upgrades Tropical Depression “a” (Philippine name Emong) and the JTWC’s Tropical Depression 11W to Tropical Storm Co-May. This is the first time Co-May has been used.

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎231200
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2508 ‎CO-MAY ‎(2508) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎231200UTC ‎17.7N ‎118.8E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎90NM
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎240000UTC ‎16.9N ‎118.6E ‎40NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎S ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
24HF ‎ ‎241200UTC ‎16.4N ‎119.1E ‎57NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎SE ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT
48HF ‎ ‎251200UTC ‎20.3N ‎123.2E ‎100NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NE ‎14KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
72HF ‎ ‎261200UTC ‎25.4N ‎129.6E ‎160NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=
 
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