2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

Invest 98W is now a high chance JTWC Invest with a TCFA.

Spoiler: 98W TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 143.5E TO 14.1N 146.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 145.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 33
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 148.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY
34 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION, AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC NEAR GUAM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VWS
(VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), WARM (30-31 C) SST (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEADY
DEVELOPMENT AND A NORTHWESTERN TRACK STEERING TOWARDS JAPAN WITHIN A 24-
36 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240900Z.

//
NNNN

 

[Atlantic]

We are still watching what was Invest 93L, who has cycled back to its original starting position and it is expected to get into the Gulf again here soon. Like last time, if it can stay far enough offshore, it may develop more than if it hugged the coast like before. If this is invest designated, it will be 95L this time around rather than the old 93L.


Recon is expected to investigate this area tomorrow if necessary:
————————————————————
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231506
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1105 AM EDT WED 23 JULY 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JULY 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1700Z
D. 27.0N 89.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW LEVEL INVEST
H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 25/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 25/1030Z
D. 28.0N 92.0W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF/WJM

NNNN

 

[Atlantic]

Welcome to round 2 of the GFS picking up on the possibility of more wintertime TC action in the Southern Indian Ocean:



These are from the 12Z run. Here is 06Z and 00Z:



And a few frames from the 00Z run:



Just something to watch for. It might not even happen, but it’s still worth watching for because interesting.

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 98W is now a high chance JTWC Invest with a TCFA.
View attachment 45349

Spoiler: 98W TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 143.5E TO 14.1N 146.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 145.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 33
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 148.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY
34 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION, AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC NEAR GUAM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VWS
(VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), WARM (30-31 C) SST (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEADY
DEVELOPMENT AND A NORTHWESTERN TRACK STEERING TOWARDS JAPAN WITHIN A 24-
36 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240900Z.

//
NNNN

98W has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 12W, with a first warning forecast peak of 60 kts (just shy of typhoon status)

Tropical Depression 12W first Warning ——————————————————— WTPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751JUL25// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 144.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 144.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.5N 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.8N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.9N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.0N 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.8N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 24.5N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 27.5N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 144.0E. 23JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 230900).// NNNN

 

[Atlantic]

So we now have 3 concurrently active storms in the Western Pacific (Francisco, Co-May and newly formed 12W)

Speaking of Co-May: the 18Z best track is up to 60 kts and it definitely seems highly likely that it will achieve typhoon status prior to landfall in the northwestern Philippines in about 12-24 hours.

 

[Atlantic]

The NHC and the CPHC have noted an AoI that is expected to develop into a disturbance in a few days. The reason the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has in correlation with the National Hurricane Center noted this disturbance is because it is centered from roughly 145*W to 135*W, and the Central Pacific begins at 140*W and ends at the International Dateline (180*W)

The wording is the same from both sides, but I’ll show it from both:

National Hurricane Center side:
View attachment 45331


Central Pacific Hurricane Center side:
View attachment 45332

All of the models have a circulation on the west side of 140*W, which is inside the eastern region of the Central Pacific basin. Some models even show the possibility that two circulations could spin up in 5 days time (July 28th)

Here’s the GFS:



The EURO-AI:


The ICON:


The CMC (the Canadian model):



The EURO



The EURO, the EURO-AI and the GEM (CMC a.k.a the Canadian model) all have two circulations around 140*W.

Should this disturbance (which by the way is now up to 0/30) form in the Central Pacific, the next name there is Iona. And should a second circulation form up at the same time and be name worthy, the following name after Iona is Keli.

 

[Atlantic]

Co-May is now a 70 kt typhoon, and it is expected to peak at 85 kts (equivalent to a Category 2 in the Atlantic) at landfall in the northwestern Philippines. After that it is expected to quickly move northward and dissapate.