2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

Last week the 57th Typhoon Commitee concluded and these names were retired:

"At its 57th session, the Committee noted the request from the Philippines to retire the names of Ewiniar, Yagi (also by China), Krathon, Trami, Kong-Rey, Toraji, Usagi and Man-Yi. Jebi was also requested to be retired. The Committee requested the countries which provided those names to provide replacement names which will be agreed upon at the next annual session of the Typhoon Committee."

EDIT: Jebi strikes me as an odd retirement request, as it did past near Japan; but it never made landfall.

 

[Atlantic]

Garance is starting to get that shrimp look, @slenker.

You can already see the round core and future eye on satelitte imagery.

 

[Atlantic]

Also the wind field map on now ex-Rae has been broken on CycloneWx for the entire duration of the cyclone's existance:

Pre-Post new note: It decides to work here huh?


Screenshot of it on the site:

 

[slenker]

Garance is starting to get that shrimp look, @slenker.

You can already see the round core and future eye on satelitte imagery.

I’ve been loosely following this thread and it seems like the southern Pacific is having an absolute field day this season. Also, that storm looks like it may go boom.

 

[Atlantic]

I’ve been loosely following this thread and it seems like the southern Pacific is having an absolute field day this season. Also, that storm looks like it may go boom.

The SPAC has been down this season until now, because too much warm in the subtropics, and La Nina.

The SPAC still hasn't produced a major cyclone (111+MPH) yet and the season a little over halfway over.

Mid-typing surprise:

Garance's track forecast has updated on Zoom Earth to say it is now 85 kts (100 mph) and it is now expected to peak at 105 kts (120 mph)
ATCF had said 75 kts (85 mph) for the 18Z update on Garance.

The yellow storm symbol to the bottom left is Severe Tropical Storm Honde.

 

[Atlantic]

20S Bianca final warning:


Bianca is located 1109 km west-southwest of Learmonth, Australia, and has tracked southeastward at 9 km/h (5 knots) over the past 6 hours. Minimum central pressure at 26/18:00 UTC is 1005 hPa. Maximum significant wave height is 4.6 meters (15 feet).

The current position is set with high confidence on a fully exposed low-level circulation evident in enhanced infrared imagery and a MetOp-B ASCAT pass, which also supports the intensity estimate of 65 km/h (35 knots).

Bianca is rapidly weakening and unraveling under the dual influences of very strong northwesterly wind shear and passage over cool water.

This is the final warning on this system by JTWC. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Warning Number 8. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

 

[IdaliaHelene]

@IdaliaHelene

I underestimated Bianca. Bianca has lasted beyond my two day estimation from the comment above. It has lasted three days now, and is likely to turn post-tropical soon, likely later today or tonight.

I KNEW IT
I PREDICTED A C2-3 WITH NUMEROLOGY FOR BIANCA
OVER FOR KANYECELS

 

[IdaliaHelene]

EDIT: Jebi strikes me as an odd retirement request, as it did past near Japan; but it never made landfall.

Australiamaxxing

 

[Atlantic]

Well... Garance and Alfred are both major cyclones now, concurrently active.

Honde is a hurricane-force cyclone now too, so we have three concurrently active hurricane-force cyclones.

 

[Atlantic]

The SHEM is 55.2 ACE ahead of the average on this date of the season (February 27th)

The SHEM has produced 178.6 ACE as of now, and the average for this date is 123.4 ACE.

 

[Atlantic]

Honde has got to be one of the wonkiest and ugliest hurricane-force storms I've ever seen. The ATCF currently has it at 70 kts (80 mph)

It's just a mess with a very ragged eye.


Don't mind Intense Tropical Cyclone Garance photobombing in the top right, Honde and Garance are close to each other.

 

[Atlantic]

Well... Garance and Alfred are both major cyclones now, concurrently active.

Honde is a hurricane-force cyclone now too, so we have three concurrently active hurricane-force cyclones.

Garance is at 105 kts (120 mph)
Honde as mentioned in the post I just made is at 70 kts (80 mph)
Alfred is the strongest of the remaining four at 115 kts (130 mph)
Seru is at 45 kts (50 mph)

Seru is likely now on the way out but it will likely last through today at least, possibly dying off tomorrow.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Well... Garance and Alfred are both major cyclones now, concurrently active.

Honde is a hurricane-force cyclone now too, so we have three concurrently active hurricane-force cyclones.

excrement, Alfred oveperformed my numerology!

 

[Atlantic]

I was looking at the 2023 tropical weather thread and found this:

2023 Tropical Weather

Not something you expect to see very often: Aaaah:

talkweather.com

I can't see the images on this computer, but the post mentions a circulation spinning the wrong way across the equator. I would like to know where this was, if you could help @IdaliaHelene it would nice.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

I was looking at the 2023 tropical weather thread and found this:

2023 Tropical Weather

Not something you expect to see very often: Aaaah:

talkweather.com

I can't see the images on this computer, but the post mentions a circulation spinning the wrong way across the equator. I would like to know where this was, if you could help @IdaliaHelene it would nice.

>Ilsa

Kangarooland

 

[Atlantic]

The first and sixth storms from the recent rare large outbreak of six storms are still active (18P Alfred and 23S Honde).

Elsewhere, we have two areas to watch again within the Southern Indian Ocean (One within the SWIO, one starting in the AR, then forecast by models to move westwards towards the SWIO)

The next name on the SWIO list is Ivone (And should the AR future AOI fail to become a storm within the AR, the next SWIO after Ivone is Jude)
The next name in the AR is Courtney

 

[Atlantic]

2024-25 now ranks in 6th place for fifth most amount of storms by March 3rd:

1996-97 - 32
1984-85 - 28
1983-84, 1998-99 - 26
1997-98, 2020-21 - 25
1977-78, 1985-86, 1991-92 - 24
1974-75, 2002-03, 2020-21, 2024-25 - 23
1980-81, 1981-82, 2004-05, 2007-08 - 22

 

[Atlantic]

In terms of ACE to date the 2024-25 has produced 202.1 ACE (Average for this date (March 3rd) is 132.7)

In terms of overall ACE the 2024-25 season is in 20th place against the final total season ending ACE.

 

[Atlantic]

2024-25 is now in 7th place for most storms for this date (Match 4th)

1996-97 - 32
1984-85 - 28
1997-98 - 27
1983-84, 1998-99 - 26
1991-92, 2020-21 - 25
1977-78, 1985-86 - 24
1974-75, 2002-03, 2020-21, 2024-25 - 23
1980-81, 1981-82, 2004-05, 2007-08 - 22

Should the two SIO signals form as the GFS expects by March 8th, this season could move up as far as 4th-6th place

 

[Atlantic]

Ahahha at the singular 100+ KT signal on this run on a possible (though unlikely) NIO storm: