2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

Comparing to the season-ending ACE of previous SHEM seasons, this season (the 2024-25 SHEM season) is now in 17th place for ACE . As of 9:00 MT this season has produced 206.7 ACE (Average for this date-March 5th-is 135.6 ACE)

As for number of storms for this date, 2024-25 is still in 7th place.

1996-97 - 32
1984-85 - 28
1997-98 - 27
1983-84, 1998-99 - 26
1991-92, 2020-21 - 25
1977-78, 1985-86 - 24
1974-75, 2002-03, 2007-08, 2024-25 - 23
1980-81, 1981-82, 1986-87, 1989-90, 2004-05 - 22

 

[Atlantic]

The eastern SIO signal has been designated Invest 98S by the JTWC and as Tropical Low 23U by the BoM in the Australian Region. The western SIO signal hasn't been invested by the JTWC yet, but should it be invest-designated it will be Invest 99S.

98S\23U has three different names it could get. if it forms quick enough it could take an Jakarta name (next name is Bakung), but if it forms slower it could have a brief window in the NW Australian Region. If it comes to it and it doesn't form in the Australian Region at all, the next name in the SWIO is Ivone; but if the the other signal forms first, it would become Jude.

The CPC issued their GTHO for the week and we should be watching the eastern SIO for most of March.

 

[Atlantic]

The JTWC's was late to the party with the western SIO signal, only just now designating the system approaching Madagascar as Invest 99S with a high chance at once.

Initial GEFS model guidance on newly-designated 99S:

 

[Atlantic]

And model guidance on Invest 98S (Tropical Low 23U in the Australian Region):

 

[Atlantic]

Radar reflextivity on Tropical Cyclone Alfred, the first storm to form in the six storm outbreak and now the last storm active from the outbreak:

 

[Atlantic]

The JTWC's was late to the party with the western SIO signal, only just now designating the system approaching Madagascar as Invest 99S with a high chance at once.

Initial GEFS model guidance on newly-designated 99S:

View attachment 34674

Anddd nevermind, downgraded to Low chance.

 

[Atlantic]

Models continue to expect Invest 98S to blow up into a strong storm in the Mozambique Channel. Invest 98S is now located in the SWIO and it is likely that the next two SWIO names (Ivone and Jude) will be used.

 

[Atlantic]

Oh and in the North Indian Ocean, we have Invest 90B which was designated early this morning (EST time). I think 90B is likely another useless Invest designation by the JTWC.

 

[Atlantic]

The SST’s off of the northern coast of Australia are stupidly high right now.
View attachment 32490

The SST off Australia are stupidly high again!

 

[Atlantic]

In terms of ACE, the 2024-25 season is now located in 17th place with 208.7 ACE. Alfred must live a bit longer to surpass the 2015-16 season.

1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
2024-25 = 208.9 (current)
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6

 

[Atlantic]

Both Invests formed, with 98S becoming Ivone and 99S becoming Jude. The next name in the SWIO now is Kanto.

 

[Atlantic]

The 2024-25 season is now back to 6th place, give me a few minutes and I will post stats.

 

[Atlantic]

1996-97 - 32
1984-85 - 29
1983-84 - 28
1997-98 - 27
1998-99 - 26
1974-75, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2020-21, 2024-25 - 25
1977-78, 1980-81, 1985-86 - 24
2004-05, 2007-08 - 23
1981-82, 1986-87, 1989-90, 1992-93 - 22

 

[Atlantic]

The 2024-25 Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Season has moved up to 15th place, and has surpassed the 2015-16 season (Despite the Super El Nino that season)



1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
2024-25 = 213.7 (current)
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6

 

[Atlantic]

Just noticed a few days ago how similar Mike 1990 and Haiyan 2013 were:

• Both formed in early November
• Both looked similar in appearance

See here:


They both have a large rainband in the NW quad curving out towards the E. Mike is on the left, Haiyan on the right.


Trackwise:

Notice both started out around 160E, and both passed though the central Philippines and curved NW and made their last landfall in China just W of Hainan.

Mike lasted from November 6th to November 18th.
Haiyan lasted from November 2nd to November 11th.

Mike was weaker though.

 

[Atlantic]

2024-25's ACE is now 214.2. To surpass the 1999-2000 season, this season must get to at least 224.7 ACE or higher.

1996-97 = 358.4
1991-92 = 318.2
1993-94 = 317.6
2018-19 = 282.9
1988-89 = 269.5
2002-03 = 262.5
2004-05 = 259.5
1997-98 = 258.4
1995-96 = 235.4
1979-80 = 231.1
2022-23 = 231.0
1992-93 = 227.4
2003-04 = 226.2
1999-2000 = 224.6
2024-25 = 214.2 (current)
1998-99 = 213.2
2015-16 = 209.3
1989-90 = 206.4
2014-15 = 205.2
1984-85 = 202.6

 

[Atlantic]

With Ivone and Jude (And counting the AR crossovers Vince and Taliah), the 2024-25 has become the most active season since the 2018-19 season in the SWIO (the 2018-19 season was the most active season on record in the SWIO with 13 NS, 11 hurricane-force cyclones and 9 major cyclones, including AR crossovers)

This season compared to the 2018-19 season:

2018-19: 13/11/9
2024-25: 12/8/5

 

[Atlantic]

Jude has likely degraded into a remnant low inland, and Ivone is still struggling with northwesterly wind shear and is currently 45 kts.

In the long-to-silly range we have to watch the northern and western Australian Region, as the ECWMF model is starting to show one or two signals for more possible action.

 

[Atlantic]

Austalian Region SSTs are getting so high it that's its so stupid to see.



Don't pay attention to the 27C mark near Brisbane, Australia; that is just a gitch Alfred caused.

 

[Atlantic]

Tropical waves can exist in the ATL in DECEMBER?