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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Melissa

2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Atlantic

Atlantic

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This year's global tropical cyclone season is nearing its' end so I am getting a head start on the upcoming 2025 season and starting this thread. Current climo models suggest we will see a weak La Nina to start with, but that it may transition back into a cool neutral instead by the NHEM peak.

2025 year status as of November 1st, 2025
Total TCs (includes TDs): 95
Total TS (regardless of naming or cyclone rank): 91
Total HU-force TCs: 45
Total Major Cyclones: 21
Global ACE: 642.8
2025 TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES ​
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humbarto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Current stats: 13/5/4
Current ACE: 132.6
Alvin
Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko
Lorena
Mario
Narda
Octave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia
Tico
Velma
Wallis
Xina
York
Zelda

Iona
Keli
Lala
Moke

Current stats: 4/3/1 (including Henriette and Kiko from the EPAC)

Current stats: 18/9/3
Current stats including CPAC: 20/11/4
Current ACE (EPAC and CPAC): 126.6
Wutip
Sepat
Mun
Danas
Nari
Wipha
Francisco
Co-may
Krosa
Bailu
Podul
Lingling
Kajiki
Nongfa
Peipah
Tapah
Mitag
Ragasa
Neoguri
Bualoi
Matmo
Halong
Nakri
Fengshen
Kalmaegi (Active)
Fung-wong
Koto
Nokaen

Current stats: 26/15/4
Current ACE: 154.4

Auring (Invest 94W)
Bising (Danas)
Crising (Wipha)
Dante (Francisco)
Emong (Co-may)
Fabian (Invest 96W)
Gorio (Podul)
Huaning (Lingling)
Isang (Kajiki)
Jacinto (Nongfa)
Kiko (Peipah)
Lannie (Tapah)
Mirasol (Mitag)
Nando (Ragasa)
Opong (Bualoi)
Paolo (Matmo)
Quedan (Nakri)
Ramil (Fengshen)
Salome (Invest 97W)
Tino (Kalmaegi)
Uwan
Verbena
Wilma
Yasmin
Zoraida
Shakhti
Montha
Senyar
Ditwah

Current stats: 3/1/0
Current ACE: 7.1
Pita
Rae
Seru
Tam
Urmil
Vaianu
Wati
Xavier
Yani
Zita
Arthur
Becky
Chip
Denia
Robyn
Sean
Taliah
Vince
Zelia
Alfred
Bianca
Courtney
Dianne
Errol

Bakung
Cempaka
Dahlia
Flamboyan
Hibu
Ila
Kama
Lobu
Maila
Fina
Grant
Hayley
Iggy
Ancha
Bheki
Chido
Dikeledi
Elvis
Faida
Garance
Honde
Ivone
Jude
Kanto (only by Meteo-France)
Caioba
Endy
Guarani
Awo
Blossom
Chenge
Dudzai
Ewetse
Fytia
Gezani
Horacio
Indusa
Juluka
Kundai
Lisebo
Michel
Nousra
Olivier
Pokera
Quincy
Rebaone
Salama
Tristan
Ursula
Violet
Wilson
Xila
Yekela
Zaina
Quick links for every basin’s RSMC
IMG_1602.png
Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Region RSMCs Perth and Darwin): ———————————————————
TCWC Jakarta of the Australian Region:

TCWC Jakarta - Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika

tropicalcyclone.bmkg.go.id tropicalcyclone.bmkg.go.id
———————————————————
TCWC Port Moresby of the Australian Region:
[no link available]
———————————————————
Fiji Meteorological Service (South Pacific RSMC #1: RSMC Nadi):

Fiji Meteorological Services - Fiji Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Fiji Meteorological Services: Your regional hub for accurate weather forecasts, severe weather alerts, and climate insights across Fiji and other Pacific Island nations. Access real-time updates, annual climate summaries, and ocean trends tailored for communities and businesses throughout the...
www.met.gov.fj www.met.gov.fj
———————————————————
Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Ltd (South Pacific RSMC #2: RSMC Wellington):

MetService - Te Ratonga Tirorangi

www.metservice.co.nz www.metservice.co.nz
———————————————————
Meteo-France (RSMC La Reunion for the Southwest Indian Ocean):

PREVISIONS METEO FRANCE - Site Officiel de Météo-France - Prévisions gratuites à 15 jours sur la France et sur le monde

METEO FRANCE - Retrouvez les prévisions METEO France de Météo-France à 15 jours, les prévisions météos locales gratuites, complètes et détaillées à 15 jours.
www.meteo.fr www.meteo.fr
———————————————————
The National Hurricane Center (RSMC Miami for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific):
———————————————————
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (RSMC Honolulu for the Central Pacific, same link as the NHC above):
———————————————————
Japan Meteorological Agency (RSMC Tokyo for the Western Pacific):

India Meteorological Department (RSMC New Delhi for the North Indian Ocean):

IMD Mausam - India Meteorological Department

Official India Meteorological Department (IMD) website. Get accurate weather forecasts, cyclone alerts, radar images, and current conditions for all Indian cities. Real-time weather updates from the government of India. Weather Today: check here live weather forecast, temperature, air...
mausam.imd.gov.in mausam.imd.gov.in
 
Last edited:
Atlantic said:
This year's global tropical cyclone season is nearing its' end so I am getting a head start on the upcoming 2025 season and starting this thread. Current climo models suggest we will see a weak La Nina to start with, but that it may transition back into a cool neutral instead by the NHEM peak.

2025 TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES ​
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humbarto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alvin
Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko
Lorena
Mario
Narda
Octave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia
Tico
Velma
Wallis
Xina
York
Zelda
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iona
Keli
Lala
Moke
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wutip
Sepat
Mun
Danas
Nari
Wipha
Francisco
Co-may
Krosa
Bailu
Podul
Lingling
Kajiki
Nongfa
Peipah
Tapah
Mitag
Ragasa
Neoguri
Bualoi
Matmo
Halong
Nakri
Fengshen
Kalmaegi
Fung-wong
Koto
Nokaen
Penha
Nuri
Sinlaku
Hagupit
Jangmi
Mekkhala
Higos
Bavi
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Auring
Bising
Crising
Dante
Emong
Fabian
Gorio
Huaning
Isang
Jolina
Kiko
Lannie
Maring
Nando
Odette
Paolo
Quedan
Ramil
Salome
Tino
Uwan
Verbena
Wilma
Yasmin
Zoraida
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shakhti
Montha
Senyar
Ditwah
Arnab
Murasu
Akvan
Kaani
Ngamann
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pita
Rae
Seru
Tam
Urmil
Vaianu
Wati
Xavier
Yani
Zita
Arthur
Becky
Chip
Denia
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Robyn
Sean
Tasha
Vince
Zelia
Anthony
Bianca
Courtney
Dianne
Errol
Fina
Grant
Hayley
Iggy
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ancha
Bheki
Chido
Dikeledi
Elvis
Faida
Garance
Honde
Ivone
Jude
Kanto
Lira
Maipelo
Njazi
Oscar
Pamela
Quentin
Rajab
Savana
Themba
Uyapo
Viviane
Walter
Xangy
Yemurai
Zanele
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bigua
Caioba
Endy
Guarani
Click to expand...
If ENSO warms up faster than expected throughout the year, then we may see neutral or even warm-neutral conditions by peak NHEM season. This may make the Pacific a bit more active than expected and could also lead to a pretty busy tornado season as well.
 
SouthFLwx said:
If ENSO warms up faster than expected throughout the year, then we may see neutral or even warm-neutral conditions by peak NHEM season. This may make the Pacific a bit more active than expected and could also lead to a pretty busy tornado season as well.
Click to expand...
Do you think that'll be the case?
 
This year was an example of what was very early on expected to be a Super La Nina by now but is instead a cool neutral or maybe now a weak La Nina.

So I understand what you are saying.
 
Atlantic said:
This year was an example of what was very early on expected to be a Super La Nina by now but is instead a cool neutral or maybe now a weak La Nina.

So I understand what you are saying.
Click to expand...
have you seen "francisco" in the WPAC naming list?
As in Lachowski?
 
We are now in 2025, with two invests from last year still active: 92S and 94S (Tropical Low 08U in the Australian Region) I will continue to talk about them even if one or both form on the 2024 version of this thread.

Our first Invest of 2025 came quickly in the form of Invest 90W, the first NHEM Invest of the year as well
 

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The SST’s off of the northern coast of Australia are stupidly high right now.
IMG_2238.jpeg
 
Dikeledi may have been the final Invest designated system of 2024, also be classified in the Australian Region as Tropical Low 09U, but it is now the first TC of 2025 and the SWIO’s earliest D- named storm in a few seasons. The D- name has been used in February these past few seasons.

We also have two other areas of interest around the world-all in the southern hemisphere. First one is Invest 97S-also known as Tropical Low 09U in the Australian Region. It has a high chance of forming in the next 24-48 hours and the JTWC has issued a TCFA on it.

The other system is Invest 98P, also known as Tropical Depression 04F in the South Pacific. This system is broad at the moment but organizing slowly. It is a part of a massive line of thunderstorms currently active in what is called the South Pacific Convergence Zone. 98P has a low chance of forming in the next 24-48 hours.
 
Current Advisory on Dikeledi:


Prognostic Reasoning:

WDXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 60.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 422 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07S WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
APPARENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS
EXPANDING OUTWARD IN THOSE DIRECTIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 07S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY THE ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A 091137Z CIMSS DMINT ESTIMATE WAS 42 KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 07S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH TAU 48. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS.
AROUND TAU 96, 07S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS IT RUNS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. REGARDING INTENSITY, 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO A PEAK OF AROUND 70 KTS AS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE. NEAR TAU 48, 07S WILL MAKE LANDFALL
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON
THE AMOUNT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. IF IT
MAKES LANDFALL FURTHER SOUTH, THEN IT COULD WEAKEN MUCH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT STANDS, 07S WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIP
AND THEN WEAKEN TO AROUND 60 KTS. IT WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
TAU 120 AS INCREASED SHEAR (20-25 KTS) FIGHTS THE WARM (30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST (PAST TAU 120), FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE AS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL GREATLY IMPROVE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF 07S THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, MODELS
DIVERGE DUE TO THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN AROUND THE STR. GFS TAKES
A WIDER TURN, CLOSER TO MOZAMBIQUE, WHILE ECMWF TAKES A SHARPER
TURN, CLOSER TO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN WORSE AGREEMENT. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PROBABILITIES
OVER THE NEXT 36 ARE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RI CHANCE AND THEN THE VARIANCE
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN MADAGASCAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN





TC Warning Text
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082051ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.3S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.6S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.7S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 59.4E.
09JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
422 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082100).//
NNNN
 
TCFA on Invest 97S (Tropical Low 09U)

WTXS21 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.9S 102.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.7S 103.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 092318Z SSMIS F-17 91 GHZ DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OF POTENTIAL GALE FORCE
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110200Z.//
NNNN
 
Invest 98P discussion from the JTWC:

ABPW10 PGTW 100000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100000Z-100600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.7S
175.5W, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
ALOFT. THE MAIN HINDRANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF 98P
AND ITS INABILITY TO CONSOLIDATE MOVING FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
 
IdaliaHelene said:
@Atlantic I wonder if Kenneth and Lidia may get retrospectively retired because of the fires
Click to expand...
Kenneth and Lidia from 2023?? I could see Lidia retroactively being retired, but not Kenneth. Kenneth was out to sea.
 
IdaliaHelene said:
I meant in connection with this

View attachment 33013
Click to expand...
Sorry, I figured out after that post (Like just after I posted).

I could definitely see Kenneth being retired now. If we had a storm named Kenneth in the future it might bring back unwanted memories, as in the name is sensitive.

Lidia not as much based off of the image above.
 
Atlantic said:
Sorry, I figured out after that post (Like just after I posted).

I could definitely see Kenneth being retired now. If we had a storm named Kenneth in the future it might bring back unwanted memories, as in the name is sensitive.

Lidia not as much based off of the image above.
Click to expand...
I won't rule it out, because Dora got retired due to fire-related events as well
plus Kenneth and Lidia are in the same basin as Los Angeles and just in case Kenneth or Lidia take a Hilary type path in 2029
 
Dikeledi has been rebounding in intensity after going further inland over Mozambique than expected:

Screenshot 2025-01-15 10.10.18 AM.png

Models are suggesting this will continue its recurve around the high pressure ridge in place northeast of it and eventually turn eastward after passing Madagascar here soon. It will likely turn post-tropical in about 48 hours or less.
 
Meanwhile... in the Australian Region the stupidly high SSTs continue:

Screenshot 2025-01-15 10.15.42 AM.png
 
Overnight Dikeledi became the first Major of 2025 overnight (for me at least). It is also the third Major cyclone in the SWIO in a row. It peaked at 115 mph.

Screenshot 2025-01-16 9.38.25 AM.png
 
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