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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Former Tropical Cyclone Jude is up to a medium chance of redevelopment by the JTWC now. Ivone is still going, and it is likely gasping it last puffs of convection now as a 35 kt TS.

Still watching from the Gulf of Carpentaria to the 90E boundary of the western Australian Region for development of further TCs within the Australian Region.
 
Jude has regenerated into a Moderate Tropical Storm per JTWC and Meteo-France La Reunion.

Ivone is still struggling and is still 35 kts.

Rather unexpected, we need to Watch the Atlantic north of the MDR, for possible subtropical development.
 
We also need to watch the South Atlantic briefly too. There is already a system.

I don't know if it is a TC or not and any help would be great, @JPWX

Screenshot 2025-03-13 3.40.16 PM.pngScreenshot 2025-03-13 3.41.16 PM.png
 
Do you have the map of the Brazilian Navy's AoR?
JPWX said:
It hasn't been designated or named by the Brazilian navy yet.
Click to expand...
 
This is every year back to 1851 in the order of 6 years


18511852
185318541855185618571858
185918601861186218631864
186518661867186818691870
187118721873187418751876
187718781879188018811882
188318841885188618871888
188918901891189218931894
189518961897189818991900
190119021903190419051906
190719081909191019111912
191319141915191619171918
191919201921192219231924
192519261927192819291930
193119321933193419351936
193719381939194019411942
194319441945194619471948
194919501951195219531954
195519561957195819591960
196119621963196419651966
196719681969197019711972
197319741975197619771978
197919801981198219831984
198519861987198819891990
199119921993199419951996
199719981999200020012002
200320042005200620072008
200920102011201220132014
201520162017201820192020
202120222023202420252026




1851 would have been a list 5 year.
 
Hhahahhahaha!

"Subtropical Storm" JUDE? when it looks like THIS?

Screenshot 2025-03-17 2.41.06 PM.png
That's a Subtropical Storm? NO WAY!
 
We are likely to get Tropical Cyclone 26S here soon.


According to Zoom Earth/JTWC:


"Invest 91S (Tropical Low 25U) is currently located near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the South Indian Ocean. The system has a HIGH chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

What is an Invest? An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that is under investigation for its potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Maximum sustained surface winds are around 50–60 km/h (28–33 knots). Infrared imagery from Himawari-9 shows curved deep convective banding over a consolidating low-level circulation center.

A 15:32 UTC AMSU-B microwave image shows that the vortex remains slightly tilted westward with height, but convective organization has improved in the western semicircle over the past 6 hours.

A 18/17:30 UTC surface observation from Cocos Islands international airport shows northwesterly 50 km/h winds (26 knots) with gusts of 69 km/h (37 knots) and an mean sea-level pressure value of 1004 hPa.

Analysis shows that Invest 91S (Tropical Low 25U) is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm (29–30°C) sea surface temperatures, moderate (15–20 knots) wind shear, and strong poleward outflow aloft.

Forecast models are in agreement that 91S will steadily develop and transit to the southwest during the next 24 hours.

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)."
 
The TCFA graphic and text from the JTWC on Invest 91S (Tropical Low 25U)

Screenshot 2025-03-18 2.55.53 PM.png
Screenshot 2025-03-18 2.57.51 PM.png
 
The data on Invest 91S:


SH, 91, 2025031706, , BEST, 0, 103S, 1012E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 91, 2025031712, , BEST, 0, 110S, 1004E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 91, 2025031718, , BEST, 0, 122S, 996E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 91, 2025031800, , BEST, 0, 126S, 987E, 25, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 360, 155, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 91, 2025031806, , BEST, 0, 129S, 978E, 30, 996, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 360, 65, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 91, 2025031812, , BEST, 0, 128S, 968E, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 25, 0, 45, 45, 1007, 145, 25, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 91, 2025031818, , BEST, 0, 127S, 964E, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 25, 0, 45, 45, 1007, 145, 25, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
 
Invest 91S (Tropical Low 25U in the Australian Region) is now Tropical Cyclone 26S!



Tropical Storm TWENTYSIX
Updated March 18, 2025 at 18:00 UTC
Located at 12.7°S, 96.4°E
Minimum Pressure: 1001 mb
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Radius of Maximum Wind: 25 nm
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Storm Radius: 145 nm
Formerly Invest 91S
Satellite LoopLatest GFS ForecastLatest ECMWF Forecast
 
We now stand at this:

01S Ancha
02S Bheki
03S Robyn
04S Chido
05S Five
06P Six
07S Dikeledi
08P Pita
09S Nine
10S Sean
11S Faida
12S Elvis
13S Vince
14S Taliah
15P Fifteen
16P Sixteen
17S Zelia
18P Alfred
19P Rae
20S Bianca
21P Seru
22S Garance
23S Honde
24S Ivone
25S Jude
26S Twenty-Six


With the designation of 26S, the SHEM has now produced more TCs than last season did. Last season produced 25 storms with the 2023-24 season's final Storm being 25S Twenty-Five. The 2021-22 season produced 26 storms and ended with 26S Karim.

It remains possible that we could reach 30 designated storms before the end of this season, and if we did, that it would be the first time since the 1998-99 season that 30 designated storms formed in the SHEM.

This season's activity remains ahead of last season by 7 designated storms.
 
Tropical Cyclone 26S first warning:


WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 96.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 96.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.1S 96.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.4S 96.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.7S 96.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.2S 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.9S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.2S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.4S 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 96.3E.
18MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
42 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z AND 192100Z.
//
NNNN
 
26S reasoning:


WDXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.3S 47.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 384 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CORE OF DEEP
CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF A
RAGGED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC) WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). DESPITE THE PARTIAL EXPOSE, TRACKING OF THE LLC HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING AS THE CIRCULATION WAS DISRUPTED BY PASSAGE OVER THE
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, COMBINED WITH AN OVERALL SCARCITY
OF MICROWAVE DATA AND OCEAN SURFACE WIND PRODUCTS. WHILE A 151824Z
ASCAT-C OVERPASS DID NOT HAVE COVERAGE OVER THE LLC, IT HELPED
ESTABLISH THAT THE POSITION IS NORTHEAST OF AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT,
LEADING TO A REPOSITIONING OF THE 1518Z BEST TRACK. THE ASCAT ALSO
PROVIDED INSIGHT INTO THE LARGE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LLC. GIVEN THE VWS VECTOR, THE UPDATED POSITION WAS ANALYZED
TO BE NORTHWEST OF A DEFINED MID-LEVEL CENTER IN A 151820Z AMSU-B
89GHZ IMAGE, ALBEIT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO BE 50 KNOTS, GIVEN A RANGE OF DVORAK
VALUES FROM T3.0 TO T3.5. CIMSS OBJECTIVE AIDS RANGE FROM GENERALLY
45 TO 55 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A NEARBY
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VWS AND LOW MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK WITH ASCAT PROVIDING
35 KT INPUT FOR SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 151645Z
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 151800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 40+ KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: ASSESSED AS TROPICAL BUT BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. SST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECLINE, AND VWS WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS
BEGINNING AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE
STRONG JET SUPPORT, LITTLE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
CARRIES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE SPREAD
IN ALONG TRACK POSITIONS, WITH MUCH FASTER FORWARD SPEEDS SEEN IN
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE COMPARED TO ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE. THE TRACK
WAS PLACED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
 
26S warning graphic:

Screenshot 2025-03-18 3.43.04 PM.png
 
The 2024-25 SHEM season is back to 5th place now, tied with several other seasons for now. Here is the stats:

1996-97 - 33
1984-85 - 31
1983-84, 1997-98, 1998-99 - 30
1977-78 - 28
1974-75, 1985-86, 1989-90, 1991-92, 2024-25 - 26
2002-03, 2007-08, 2020-21 - 25
1980-81, 1981-82, 1985-86, 1993-94, 2004-05 - 24
1995-96, 2002-03, 2019-20 - 23
1976-77, 1979-80, 1986-87, 1992-93, 2008-09, 2018-19 - 22
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Tropical Cyclone 26S failed to meet the requirements of 3/4 gales by the BoM.

However the BoM is watching the western area of their basin for the development of Tropical Low 27U, which seems to have decent support for possibly becoming a strong storm (for now, as models love to show something for a while, and then drop it)

Other than that, we may be watching the Eastern region of the BoM's AoR for development as well, but nothing has been marked by BoM yet, and until something is I would hold back on a disturbance marking.

We are closing in on the quietest part of the year, as April is typically quiet due to tropical development shifting from the SHEM to the NHEM.
 
Also to remind everyone, the 47th R IV Hurricane Commitee session will start in 10 days, on March 31st. It is slated for March 31 to April 4th.
 
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