2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[KevinH]

Not sure we want to start a thread or wait, but good article from Bryan Nordcross on 97L He reference Hurricane Elena as a possible sitsituation with the steering currents.

Bryan Norcross: Latest computer forecasts indicate tropical system could stall, impact Florida for days

Welcome to August. The various computer forecast models have coalesced around the idea that the tropical disturbance we've been following will track into the Gulf of Mexico.

www.foxweather.com

Not sure what the criteria is for starting a thread about hurricanes. Severe threats I think we got covered, but hurricanes… no idea.

Definitely need to be mindful in the coming months.

 

[wx_guy]

The SHIPS for 18z for 97L:






EDIT: To me, looking at the plots on the right, it looks like in 48-72 hours, this thing could crank.

 

[Clancy]

Now at 70% risk for development.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of
this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while
it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[slenker]

The SHIPS for 18z for 97L:

View attachment 29478




EDIT: To me, looking at the plots on the right, it looks like in 48-72 hours, this thing could crank.

Interesting that it takes it over, and even past, Cuba. I can’t recall a storm with this much track disagreement between models in a while. Whatever the GFS was saying earlier was a worst-case scenario, but then we have other models like the Euro where it just goes fish storm mode.

 

[JPWX]

I just find it funny how the first thing said about this disturbance was that it was 100% going up the East Coast just because the Euro model had it doing that. When I read that, I'm like yo way too early for that statement. One thing to remember: the weaker the storm and/or longer it takes to develop, the further west it'll get and vice versa.

 

[Clancy]

NHC feeling fairly confident about 97's track into the GoM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward near or
over Cuba on Friday and then emerge over the Straits of Florida
Friday night or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for additional development after that time, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits
of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[wx_guy]

NHC feeling fairly confident about 97's track into the GoM.

View attachment 29498

This is really a huge update. It doesn't denote path, but it *kinda* does, and they removed basically all of the Peninsula. This firmly puts it as a Panhandle threat as the biggest target.

 

[wx_guy]

Up to 60/90 chances, and they say that Watches/Warnings will likely be required later today, and HH are scheduled to investigate later today also.

 

[Clancy]

Advisories incoming for PTC4.

 

[Clancy]

Some models honing in on the Tampa Bay area, but until it stops interacting with the Cuban Peninsula, any determinations of track will be especially challenging, leaving unfortunately little time to figure out where highest impacts may be. Hopefully a short transit time over water will prevent substantial strengthening, but Gulf systems are sketchy with regard to this, obviously. Quite a few of the models also still have it stalling out, which would be a serious flooding concern. SoE in effect for much of Florida.

Florida Gov. DeSantis declares State of Emergency ahead of Invest 97L potential landfall

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis officially declared a State of Emergency Thursday afternoon as forecasters track a tropical disturbance heading toward Florida.

www.wctv.tv

 

[Clancy]

First advisory is out.

 

[Mike S]

Not sure what the criteria is for starting a thread about hurricanes. Severe threats I think we got covered, but hurricanes… no idea.

Definitely need to be mindful in the coming months.

I'm not sure we've ever specifically defined one, and we certainly can if we need too. I think future possibly maybe might be Debby is far enough along now that if someone wants to start a thread, go ahead.

Two good rules of thumb - if it gets a name, start a thread, or, as in this Maybe Debby instance, the NHC initiates Advisory 1, start a thread.

 

[KevinH]

I'm not sure we've ever specifically defined one, and we certainly can if we need to. I think future possibly maybe might be Debby is far enough along now that if someone wants to start a thread, go ahead.

Two good rules of thumb - if it gets a name, start a thread, or, as in this Maybe Debby instance, the NHC initiates Advisor 1, start a thread.

I like it lol

 

[JPWX]

Is it my imagination or has the center of PTC Four relocated South of Cuba now

 

[JPWX]

10pm track has been nudged westward. I would expect another westward shift. Quite frankly, in my opinion, none of the forecast models have a good handle on TD 4 at this juncture.

 

[Clancy]

Modelling shifted back towards the inner Panhandle, demonstrating a lack of forecast confidence run-to-run. Until it gets its act together and moves past Cuba, I'm not sure we'll get much more than an educated guess at its eventual destination. Though not forecasted to exceed Tropical Storm strength, I could definitely see this being a bit of a logistical nightmare for FL emergency management.

 

[jiharris0220]

Modelling shifted back towards the inner Panhandle, demonstrating a lack of forecast confidence run-to-run. Until it gets its act together and moves past Cuba, I'm not sure we'll get much more than an educated guess at its eventual destination. Though not forecasted to exceed Tropical Storm strength, I could definitely see this being a bit of a logistical nightmare for FL emergency management.
View attachment 29526View attachment 29527

I’d honestly ignore all global models on this one, especially the GFS, which initialization as of 0z still has TD4 as an open wave with the vort max in northern Cuba.

It literally still has easterlies south of cayman and no convention, just not even remotely close to reality.

 

[wx_guy]

Now that we have a center, the path up to landfall looks much more consistent and locked on. Big Bend buckle up.

 

[JPWX]

One thing to note it's forward speed has decreased to 15mph from 17mph last night. I know that doesn't sound like much, but it does bring up a very interesting point: if the steering currents will break or if it's forward speed continues to decrease prior to the Florida landfall.

 

[wx_guy]

One thing to note it's forward speed has decreased to 15mph from 17mph last night. I know that doesn't sound like much, but it does bring up a very interesting point: if the steering currents will break or if it's forward speed continues to decrease prior to the Florida landfall.

This is a great point! That's 612 miles over 36 hours vs 540 miles, that could be very significant in determining if it gets picked up by the trough or not.