2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[JPWX]

As expected, Beryl is not holding back

 

[Casuarina Head]

With the most recent satellite loop, Beryl does actually appear to be generating an (albeit faint) eye-like signature.

It only is really evident on the most recent microwave imagery, and one needs to await persistence before calling it an eye. The “CDO” (which appears to be a series of bursting tops rather than a true CDO, but I could be wrong) appears disheveled on visible imagery, and extensive outflow boundaries are evident, indicating dry-air intrusion. This could account, in part, for eye-like features. Furthermore, dry air tends to prevent stronger winds from reaching the surface, so Beryl could be a) weaker than suspected or b) intensifying at a slower pace or c) both.

It is definitely getting its act together, the convection is bubbling quite substantially all around its core. While I don’t know the most favorable quadrant for convection when looking at intensifying TCs, it certainly seems to be blowing up all around the core of Beryl at the moment, so I’m still on the side that this thing is intensifying quite quickly.

In this case I would, personally, look more at the internal structure and environment rather than infrared imagery or reconnaissance data.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

^ That microwave imagery was taken many hours ago, and since then, the structure, if anything, seems to have gotten less impressive.

The yellow area, including the outflow boundaries, indicates the dry air, the sharp edge of the convection easterly shear. The structure still looks tilted as well.

 

[Clancy]

2PM Advisory holds serve. Definitely wouldn't want to be vacationing in Barbados right now.

 

[JPWX]

Really hate to burst your bubble, but the bulk of the dry air is well to the north of it. Having little impact overall.

Plus the cirrus outflow is good on all sides meaning it has good ventilation. Also wind shear is 5-10 knots so not having much of an affect.

 

[slenker]

What's an RI?

 

[TornadoFan]

What's an RI?

RI=Rapid Intensification.

 

[warneagle]

Doesn’t look like the shear is going to be an inhibitor to development outside of the very short term.

 

[wx_guy]

The 2 PM EDT Best Track update has it up to 70 mph. On the edge of a hurricane.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Really hate to burst your bubble, but the bulk of the dry air is well to the north of it. Having little impact overall.

Plus the cirrus outflow is good on all sides meaning it has good ventilation. Also wind shear is 5-10 knots so not having much of an affect.

CIMSS estimates aren’t always accurate, if I recall correctly. I’m look at the cloud-pattern, and even on IR I see a lot of (north)easterly shear. There seems to be some stream at the mid levels that is “slicing” southwestward, resulting in a slovenly presentation. (Beryl almost appears to be “shuddering” from this.) The overall “shape” seems to be tilted from northeast to southwest, while the eye-like feature is still not showing up on visible imagery. Also, Beryl has sped up since yesterday and throughout the day, and is now moving faster than ever. A small system can intensify rapidly while moving at such a clip (see Andrew, 1992), but if the shear-vector and magnitude is unfavourable relative to the storm’s trajectory and speed, it will tend to limit RI or even induce weakening. If this is undergoing RI now, an eye should show up on visible and IR imagery fairly shortly, and deep convection should wrap all the way around. I don’t see this happening yet.

 

[wx_guy]

CIMSS estimates aren’t always accurate, if I recall correctly. I’m look at the cloud-pattern, and even on IR I see a lot of (north)easterly shear. There seems to be some stream at the mid levels that is “slicing” southwestward, resulting in a slovenly presentation. (Beryl almost appears to be “shuddering” from this.) The overall “shape” seems to be tilted from northeast to southwest, while the eye-like feature is still not showing up on visible imagery. Also, Beryl has sped up since yesterday and throughout the day, and is now moving faster than ever. A small system can intensify rapidly while moving at such a clip (see Andrew, 1992), but if the shear-vector and magnitude is unfavourable relative to the storm’s trajectory and speed, it will tend to limit RI or even induce weakening. If this is undergoing RI now, an eye should show up fairly shortly, and deep convection should wrap all the way around. I don’t see this happening yet.

I'm not trying to start an argument, but I don't really understand why you feel like you are more knowledgable than the NHC. They are the best of the best, have tools not available to the public, and have literally centuries of combined experience doing this. They indicate a major hurricane coming into the islands by Monday. The models show the same. You can be the contrarian if you prefer, but you should really drop the "it's gonna fizzle out because such strong shear and dry air" bit -- later in the forecast period, some weakening looks likely because of just those two things and maybe land interaction. But the environment IS conducive for strengthening currently, and everyone (except you) expects that to happen.

 

[warneagle]

I'm not trying to start an argument, but I don't really understand why you feel like you are more knowledgable than the NHC. They are the best of the best, have tools not available to the public, and have literally centuries of combined experience doing this. They indicate a major hurricane coming into the islands by Monday. The models show the same. You can be the contrarian if you prefer, but you should really drop the "it's gonna fizzle out because such strong shear and dry air" bit -- later in the forecast period, some weakening looks likely because of just those two things and maybe land interaction. But the environment IS conducive for strengthening currently, and everyone (except you) expects that to happen.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a helluva drug.

 

[wx_guy]

94L up to 50/50 development and the East ATL spot up to 30/70 development as of 2 PM EDT.

 

[Casuarina Head]

I'm not trying to start an argument, but I don't really understand why you feel like you are more knowledgable than the NHC. They are the best of the best, have tools not available to the public, and have literally centuries of combined experience doing this.

They are indeed highly knowledgeable and experienced, but even the professionals (even “official”) are not untouchable, infallible demigods or sacred cows.

They indicate a major hurricane coming into the islands by Monday. The models show the same. You can be the contrarian if you prefer, but you should really drop the "it's gonna fizzle out because such strong shear and dry air" bit -- later in the forecast period, some weakening looks likely because of just those two things and maybe land interaction.

I don’t think it will “fizzle out“ until then, nor did I ever say that. I just don’t think that this will become a major hurricane by the time it hits the Lesser Antilles. It *might* become a minimal hurricane, but not a Cat-2+, in my view. I still think this is not more than 50-55 knots right now, not a borderline hurricane. I am no meteorologist, but I have been watching these systems, as well as the professionals who track them, for years, and this TC looks more disorganised than the 60-knot systems I remember a decade or so ago.

But the environment IS conducive for strengthening currently, and everyone (except you) expects that to happen.

As Dr. Cowan mentioned, the vortex is still tilted due to easterly shear, something that I noted as well. That needs to change before RI can really take off.

 

[Casuarina Head]

The strong ridging and associated trades extend well into the eastern Caribbean, bringing dry air and (north)easterly shear in their wake. If the environment were really conducive to RI, moisture should extend farther northwest and the trades should at least be much weaker near the Lesser Antilles. The orientation of the ridging is not really favourable either. The environment north of 12°N in general just looks very parched. I keep looking out for an eye on visible and IR but still nothing. By now the convective pattern should at least show some signs of becoming more symmetric and less “tilted”...

 

[warneagle]

Not sure if I’ve seen a tropical storm meet RI criteria before. It’s probably happened but I don’t remember it specifically.

 

[Clancy]

East Atlantic system basically looks to follow in the footsteps of Beryl.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[TornadoFan]

Beryl is now a hurricane!