2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[wx_guy]

The HWRF and HAFS do hint at RI once in the Eastern Caribbean as well. Do you have a link to that?

I ran it using Python and the Tropycal package. I'll try to post the results as times goes on, I think it's a really nice infographic.

 

[JPWX]

I ran it using Python and the Tropycal package. I'll try to post the results as times goes on, I think it's a really nice infographic.

Ah okay.

 

[wx_guy]

Ah okay.

import tropycal as tp
from tropycal import realtime
import tropycal.tracks as tracks
import datetime as dt
from datetime import datetime, timedelta

storm = realtime.Realtime().get_storm(('AL952024'))

ships = storm.get_ships(dt.datetime(2024,6,28,0))

ships.plot_summary()

Here's the code if anyone wants to fill in my slack when I'm busy. It's easy code to run and formats the report automatically. Like I said, super nice.

 

[slenker]

import tropycal as tp
from tropycal import realtime
import tropycal.tracks as tracks
import datetime as dt
from datetime import datetime, timedelta

storm = realtime.Realtime().get_storm(('AL952024'))

ships = storm.get_ships(dt.datetime(2024,6,28,0))

ships.plot_summary()

Here's the code if anyone wants to fill in my slack when I'm busy. It's easy code to run and formats the report automatically. Like I said, super nice.

Would this require a conda based installation of this package, or is it just straight-up available to import? I’m relatively new to coding myself, forgive me if this is a strange question

 

[wx_guy]

Would this require a conda based installation of this package, or is it just straight-up available to import? I’m relatively new to coding myself, forgive me if this is a strange question

I'm using Jupyter notebook but it should work with anything.

 

[akt1985]

Could we actually be looking at a B named storm being retired if it hits land?

 

[Clancy]

Wowsers at the projected HWRF presentation for 95L.

 

[JPWX]

Here's my overview of 95L.

Tropical Update: Invest 95L | Johnny Parker, Meteorologist

Get more from Johnny Parker, Meteorologist on Patreon

www.patreon.com

 

[JBishopwx]

Not to get ahead of ourselves.. but there are two more waves behind 95L.

 

[slenker]

This seems really over the top for June.

 

[warneagle]

Cape Verde hurricane in June, probably fine, nothing to see here

 

[wx_guy]

The track plot didn't generate properly, but here's the rest of the 12z SHIPS forecast for 95L. Pretty strong probabilities now that we have a strong tropical storm this weekend, and good probabilities that we could have a hurricane by early next week.

 

[slenker]

The track plot didn't generate properly, but here's the rest of the 12z SHIPS forecast for 95L. Pretty strong probabilities now that we have a strong tropical storm this weekend, and good probabilities that we could have a hurricane by early next week.

If this comes to fruition, that area in the 125-135 hr range looks dangerous. Shear down to 10 kt, SSTs at borderline 30 C, high heat content. Scary combo. We'll just have to wait and see how the models continue to evolve.

Edit: 10 knots of wind shear or less is a value that favors rapid intensification, iirc. I certainly hope that number goes up.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Shouldn’t we wait until we have an actual system before hinting at a hurricane in the deep tropics in late June? Given the fickleness of models...

The TC models—especially the HWRF and HAFS—are notoriously too aggressive with systems that lack a well-defined centre. Furthermore, the GFS in particular is too aggressive with any system, most of the time. SHIPS guidance is GFS-based, if I recall correctly. Right now 95L is close to meeting the criteria for classification as a depression, but beyond that dry air looks to be an issue over the next three days, low shear and high SSTs notwithstanding. Afterward shear increases dramatically over the Caribbean, so I would tend to expect rapid weakening by then, especially given the small size of the circulation.

Currently I would like to see deeper and more persistent convection rather than a bursting-type evolution, along with a well-defined centre, to be more certain of those solutions that call for a hurricane near the Lesser Antilles. As of now I think that a weak to moderate tropical storm is most likely. (We had Bret and Cindy last June in the same general area, and neither of these ended up presaging a hyperactive season ACE-wise.) The dry air on visible imagery is just too close and will only get worse with any slight gain in latitude that 95L makes over the upcoming days. Such a small system as this will be prone to dramatic fluctuations.

 

[Clancy]

NHC expects development with 95L in the near-term as convection continues to organize.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

 

[wx_guy]

NHC expects development with 95L in the near-term as convection continues to organize.
View attachment 28898

Sounds like 5 PM will bring TD 2 or Beryl.

 

[wx_guy]

Shouldn’t we wait until we have an actual system before hinting at a hurricane in the deep tropics in late June? Given the fickleness of models...

The TC models—especially the HWRF and HAFS—are notoriously too aggressive with systems that lack a well-defined centre. Furthermore, the GFS in particular is too aggressive with any system, most of the time. SHIPS guidance is GFS-based, if I recall correctly. Right now 95L is close to meeting the criteria for classification as a depression, but beyond that dry air looks to be an issue over the next three days, low shear and high SSTs notwithstanding. Afterward shear increases dramatically over the Caribbean, so I would tend to expect rapid weakening by then, especially given the small size of the circulation.

Currently I would like to see deeper and more persistent convection rather than a bursting-type evolution, along with a well-defined centre, to be more certain of those solutions that call for a hurricane near the Lesser Antilles. As of now I think that a weak to moderate tropical storm is most likely. (We had Bret and Cindy last June in the same general area, and neither of these ended up presaging a hyperactive season ACE-wise.) The dry air on visible imagery is just too close and will only get worse with any slight gain in latitude that 95L makes over the upcoming days. Such a small system as this will be prone to dramatic fluctuations.

Point taken, but the designation difference between a TD/TS and Invest 95L is basically zero at this point. The models have been running for Invests for several seasons now, and while they weren't designed with Invests in mind, the models do a decent job predicting even at the Invest level. Yes, SHIPS uses the GFS for some of its variables, but it also uses satellite data and other data sources besides the GFS. There's waaaaay too much hate in the amateur wx community on the GFS -- it is still consistently a great model most of the time in the short and medium range, slightly sub-par to the Euro. But so much of our existing infrastructure is GFS-derived, including the HAFS-A and HAFS-B and the GEFS and parts of the SHIPS model. So lamenting about the GFS does us not much good, because a large part of our forecasting suite is reliant upon it. You might as well say "Don't trust the modeling ever", which is not useful.

 

[Clancy]

Curious where this system may go in the long-run; models have it trekking westward but past Jamaica it becomes more of a crapshoot obviously. If it were to transit the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf, could pose a threat to the Gulf Coast. Other models show it running into Central America. Either way, the Caribbean may have to contend with a fairly robust tropical cyclone.

 

[wx_guy]

18z BTK has officially designated it as TD #2. So at 5 PM, we should get the first advisory.

 

[wx_guy]

The 12z GEFS wants to keep it weaker (mostly TS) and further west and south, away from the U.S. and towards Central America. Still a long way to watch it, though.