2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[JBishopwx]

 

[JBishopwx]

Also, the first Invest of the season is now up.

 

[lake.effect]

Models hinting at cyclone development in the central gulf around D9/D10.

Euro, GFS and Canadian all showing something brewing.

GFS is the strongest, developing the feature into a 950mb cane.

Strong signal, but still a long way out.

 

[JPWX]

Models hinting at cyclone development in the central gulf around D9/D10.

Euro, GFS and Canadian all showing something brewing.

GFS is the strongest, developing the feature into a 950mb cane.

Strong signal, but still a long way out.

Has ensemble support too. The overall general pattern also is supportive of a Gulf tropical threat.

 

[slenker]

If this unfolds the way the GFS has been hinting at, starting the season off with a strong hurricane on the gulf coast would not only be devastating, but also a signal for things to come. It’s only June.

 

[Clancy]

NHC outlining that area in the Gulf to be watched.

 

[slenker]

70% chance of development past D2 for Yucatán system now.

 

[Clancy]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[JPWX]

The beginning of what is likely to be a plethora of activity ahead. The Euro thru July 15th has the ACE in Atlantic at nearly 2.0 of normal while the Western and Eastern Pacific both are only 0.2 to 1.0 of normal ACE.

ECMWF | Charts

charts.ecmwf.int

 

[Clancy]

Development likely on the Gulf disturbance.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for
portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those
warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf
coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[JPWX]

PTC One coming at 4pm.

 

[Clancy]

PTC One coming at 4pm.

902
WTNT31 KNHC 172048
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory

 

[JPWX]

And we've got another lemon in the Western Gulf.... in the 8pm EDT Outlook

 

[JBishopwx]