2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[andyhb]

Need a separate thread for Beryl since it looks to become a major and have impacts to at least the Windward Islands.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Beryl is now a hurricane!

It doesn’t look like one, to be honest. A lot of strong tropical storms have partially-developed inner cores as well. I think it is 55-60 knots now, not 65 knots.

 

[Clancy]

Hurricane Warnings issued for Barbados as Beryl reaches sustained winds of 75 MPH.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

Need a separate thread for Beryl since it looks to become a major and have impacts to at least the Windward Islands.

It’s already up here.

 

[Clancy]

System east of Beryl is designated 96L and will follow in Beryl's footsteps.

 

[Casuarina Head]

System east of Beryl is designated 96L and will follow in Beryl's footsteps.

I think this one may have been overhyped. Models no longer show much, if any, deepening, and the system is currently attached to the monsoonal trough. Dry air will be a bigger impediment than in Beryl’s case. All the focus right now is on Beryl, and rightly so. Fortunately, I don’t think that a second system is going to follow in its wake; given Beryl, the islands and other areas will have enough to contend with.

 

[wx_guy]

94L has surged back to life and may steal the name Chris from 96L. The recon is finding it may be becoming a depression, and the NHC says tropical storm watches may be needed later today. Odds up to 80 percent development on it.

 

[Clancy]

TD 3 has formed; expected to briefly become a Tropical Storm before moving into Mexico.

 

[akt1985]

We now have Tropical Storm Chris

 

[lake.effect]

CSU ups the ante with their new "official" Hurricane activity forecast, released yesterday:

• 25 named storms
• 12 hurricanes
• 6 majors

Basically a 10% increase across the board and the biggest seasons you can name listed as analogues (2005, 1933, 2020, 1995).

I'm skeptical. It's unlikely we will tropical development until the last week of July. That means the August + September period will likely need 12ish named storms to keep the pace of this prediction, plus a very active back end of the season lasting well into November.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

40% risk for development in next 7 days now.

 

[Clancy]

Now 50%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system is
in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[KevinH]

Now 50%.

View attachment 29439

And now 60%

 

[akt1985]

Some models are hinting at a possible home grown system near New Orleans weekend of August 10th.

 

[JPWX]

Some models are hinting at a possible home grown system near New Orleans weekend of August 10th.

18z GFS this evening does show that. Not impossible, but it would be very hard to pull that type of track the 18z shows

 

[jiharris0220]

0z GFS for the tropical wave is basically a hurricane Elena redux.

This along with other global models showing a western shift/stalling scenario, people along the big bend and Alabama/Mississippi gulf coast need to be prepared.

 

[Clancy]

NHC continuing to watch things closely. A lot of possible outcomes with this system, with the potential for a high-impact event, even without a strong TC.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of
this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater
Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater
Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early
next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida
Peninsula. Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[JBishopwx]

Not sure we want to start a thread or wait, but good article from Bryan Nordcross on 97L He reference Hurricane Elena as a possible sitsituation with the steering currents.

Bryan Norcross: Latest computer forecasts indicate tropical system could stall, impact Florida for days

Welcome to August. The various computer forecast models have coalesced around the idea that the tropical disturbance we've been following will track into the Gulf of Mexico.

www.foxweather.com