You’ll take any opportunity to hijack whatever conversation is at hand back to your theory won’t you?
Just admit you’re my secret admirer, on some level, and I yours. For someone who finds nothing of value in my posts, and who sees me as more or less a troll at best, you seem to be wasting (by your own judgment, not mine per se) a lot of time addressing them, instead of trying to ignore them, block them, or get me banned. Okay, then—and here I am genuinely curious: what value do you secretly see in my posts? Because otherwise your behaviour seems inexplicable to me, just as mine to you. I haven’t done the same to you, despite your critique, because I see many things of value in your contributions as well, including the criticism. And I mean that: if I didn’t value your input, or any criticism whatsoever, I wouldn’t even be reading it, much less responding.
No one. I was referring to @JPWX’s post in another thread mentioning those years in relation to tornadoes, not hurricanes, and only because @wx_guy brought up the connection between Gulf SST and severe weather. And I didn’t really want to go into severe weather originally, but digressed in relation to that point.
Calling out the likelihood of a bust in advance of a HIGH-Risk event (which did bust, incidentally)—moreover, by deferring in part to another, far more qualified person, not solely oneself—isn’t moving the goalposts. At least I don’t think so. In regard to the 2024 hurricane season: I think I made clear in multiple posts that I personally expect seasonal ACE in the 140s, no higher, and also mentioned that I think forecasts for 190-plus units will also be wrong.
Will you please just, for the love of god, stop with this.
No one with any credibility was mentioning those years for this tornado season. In fact, the seasonal analogs that had more substance have actually done quite well (2010, 2016, etc.). Again, please stop.
I didn’t know that @JPWX was not credible. Credibility can be measured in many ways. (Your latter point about seasonal analogs is well taken, however.)
This is not the first time you and others have mentioned this. So if all I ever post is irrelevant and/or spurious nonsense, why even bother responding? Why not simply ignore, report, block, and/or ban instead?
From 1995 to 2010 there were eight hyperactive Atlantic seasons ACE-wise. In the comparable period since there have only been two. Re: historical data: pre-satellite ACE is likely significantly underestimated to begin with, especially over water and/or outside the U.S. (even CONUS observational records in some areas are reliable back to 1900 at earliest). Preliminary reanalysis has found much more ACE than officially documented in the late nineteenth century, for instance.
It should not be up to us to block your posts or ask for a ban. It's on you to improve your posting.
You really don't know what you're talking about at all, do you?As I suspected about a month ago, the subtropical North Atlantic off Newfoundland has begun to warm up considerably vs. the tropical Atlantic. The area east of Newfoundland and south of Greenland in particular has seen substantial, expanded warming. In the meantime note the emergence of a cold arc offshore of northwestern Iberia and northwestern Africa. This is more typical of a -AMO than a +AMO. In April the +AMO arc was in a more canonical position, but now its axis has shifted westward, toward the northeastern Caribbean, with a relative minimum farther east, over the MDR, that is subtly linked to the cool arc. The +AMO arc has also cooled a bit vs. April.
The latest CFSv2 is starting to hint at a drier Caribbean during the peak of the season, which would be consistent with a weaker +AMO and/or warmer subtropics vs. tropics, suggestive of greater stability. Once again, I personally believe that the “hyperactive” forecasts, be they of official or unofficial provenance, will verify as well as the HIGH Risk for the Plains on 6 May 2024 (truly “hyperactive” Atlantic seasons going the way of high-end Plains tornado outbreaks in general). Modelling has yet to take into account the potential role of climate change in modulating hurricane and tornado seasons on a seasonal scale. High-end events may be becoming more and more infrequent.
As of now the SSTA configuration that would be needed to sustain the high-end forecasts looks to be eroding. April’s configuration was more conducive, in my view.
That would be the third time a storm named Alberto has hit the Florida Panhandle if the forecast comes to fruition.
