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Can someone make a new thread please so today doesn't get lost in this general severe thread? I would, but nah.
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Severe Weather 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
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JPWX
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In other news SPC is starting to mention the possibility of severe storms in conjunction with the specified timeframe that CPC has been indicating.
Several days of airmass modification will be required after a dry
continental intrusion in the Gulf on D2-3. As a surface cyclone
becomes established in the lee of the southern Rockies around D7,
increasing PW will build north from the western Gulf. In conjunction
with zonal flow supporting an elevated mixed layer spreading east,
instability will likely increase across parts of east TX into LA by
D8. As this occurs, potential will exist for severe storms, but will
be highly dependent on sub-synoptic details. The spread of which
appears too large to warrant a 15 percent area at this time.
Several days of airmass modification will be required after a dry
continental intrusion in the Gulf on D2-3. As a surface cyclone
becomes established in the lee of the southern Rockies around D7,
increasing PW will build north from the western Gulf. In conjunction
with zonal flow supporting an elevated mixed layer spreading east,
instability will likely increase across parts of east TX into LA by
D8. As this occurs, potential will exist for severe storms, but will
be highly dependent on sub-synoptic details. The spread of which
appears too large to warrant a 15 percent area at this time.
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Clancy
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A lot of rain (left), and maybe some severe (right) later this week according to CIPS.
JPWX
Member
Bingo! Weesa gonna flood again. Goodbye drought! LOL!
tennessee storm chaser
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yep another big rain event for the south, i am not seeing much on the severe weather side to get hyped up about for awhile
If this pattern keeps up, its just a matter of time
JPWX
Member
With the 5.77 inches of rain I got this past week, I've received 9.42 inches of rain this month. January average is 4.83 inches. This is my 2nd highest total rainfall for January behind 2020 with 10.25 inches.
Clancy
Member
CIPS-ER showing a strong signal for persistent heavy rain heading towards this weekend, and again at the end of the period. Could definitely be a substantial flood threat for parts of the South, especially near the Gulf Coast.
JPWX
Member
Well someone should inform MEG of this because they're not seeing it. LOL!
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yeah, 12Z GFS says a trough maybe comes through next weekend, but the flow in the exit region is so meridional (out of the due south or even SSE at 500mb), I doubt it'll be able to do much especially in terms of discrete activity.
Clancy
Member
Interesting signals from CIPS and CSU probs for late week. Trough depicted passing through the plains Saturday-ish, though instability seems questionable.
ashtonlemleywx
Member
GFS and Euro both showing trough rolling in next weekend. As of now GFS is more positively tilted than the Euro.
GFS is showing best moisture over ArkLaTex on Saturday and Mississippi on Super Bowl Sunday.
Last year severe weather pattern started ramping up on Feb 8th.
GFS is showing best moisture over ArkLaTex on Saturday and Mississippi on Super Bowl Sunday.
Last year severe weather pattern started ramping up on Feb 8th.
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I'm sure this was mentioned in another thread, and not sure when they will put this into effect, but this was discussed again at the AMS meetings this week:
JPWX
Member
Man! I'm gonna love that time based threat forecasts and all! That's awesome!!!! Of course, it'll be a while still before all this is made available for public access.
JPWX
Member
Also by the way, Dr. Schneider is one of the main speakers that's gonna be in Starkville in March at the Severe Storm Symposium. I've been to nearly every one of these since my first one in 2012. I had to miss last year's due to almost getting hit by the Amory, MS EF3 tornado. I will be at this year's pending any additional near tornado misses and/or significant weather threat. Put a whole new spin on the Severe Storm Symposium. I would highly encourage any weather enthusiasts to come. You learn a lot and also make connections with other meteorologists/wx enthusiasts.
Symposium XXII
The 22nd Annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium brings together professional meteorologists, students, and weather enthusiasts from across not just the Southeast region, but from all reaches of the...
www.eastmsnwaams.com
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Signal
JPWX
Member
I've been working on something intriguing and it has me concerned about Spring tornado season.
I call it the Snow/tornado teleconnection.
Mainly focused on Monroe County, MS.
So Monroe County has had 11 tornadoes in March and 17 in April. 6 EF0, 6 EF1, 6 EF2, 6 EF3, 1 EF4, and 2 EF5.
Years where we (Monroe County) had a trace or more of snow (January/February):
1909 (EF2 in April)
1920 (EF4 in April)
1933 (EF2 in March)
1963 (EF3 in March)
1974 (EF5 in April/Super Outbreak 1)
1975 (EF2 in March)
1976 (EF3 in March)
1989 (EF1 in March)
2010 (EF1 in April)
2011 (2 EF3 and 1 EF5 in April/Super Outbreak 2)
2021 (EF0 and EF1 in March)
Out of the 11 tornadoes in March, only 2 years had no snow during January/February, but still had tornadoes (2022/2023)
2022 (EF0 and EF1 in March)
2023 (EF3 in March)
Out of the 17 tornadoes in April, only 5 years had no snow during January/February, but still had tornadoes (1995, 2005, 2009, 2016, and 2019)
1938 (EF2 in April)
1995 (2 EF0's in April)
2005 (EF1 in April)
2009 (EF1 in April)
2016 (2 EF0's in April)
2019 (2 EF2's in April)
As you can see, with the exception of March 2023, the vast majority of EF3+ tornadoes in Monroe County have occurred during years that had snow.
The significant winter event across North MS and Monroe County was our first big January winter event since 2011. Not trying to compare or say this Spring will be like that, but based on what I've found/researched, it does indicate trouble ahead especially with the transitioning back to La Nina by Spring.
I call it the Snow/tornado teleconnection.
Mainly focused on Monroe County, MS.
So Monroe County has had 11 tornadoes in March and 17 in April. 6 EF0, 6 EF1, 6 EF2, 6 EF3, 1 EF4, and 2 EF5.
Years where we (Monroe County) had a trace or more of snow (January/February):
1909 (EF2 in April)
1920 (EF4 in April)
1933 (EF2 in March)
1963 (EF3 in March)
1974 (EF5 in April/Super Outbreak 1)
1975 (EF2 in March)
1976 (EF3 in March)
1989 (EF1 in March)
2010 (EF1 in April)
2011 (2 EF3 and 1 EF5 in April/Super Outbreak 2)
2021 (EF0 and EF1 in March)
Out of the 11 tornadoes in March, only 2 years had no snow during January/February, but still had tornadoes (2022/2023)
2022 (EF0 and EF1 in March)
2023 (EF3 in March)
Out of the 17 tornadoes in April, only 5 years had no snow during January/February, but still had tornadoes (1995, 2005, 2009, 2016, and 2019)
1938 (EF2 in April)
1995 (2 EF0's in April)
2005 (EF1 in April)
2009 (EF1 in April)
2016 (2 EF0's in April)
2019 (2 EF2's in April)
As you can see, with the exception of March 2023, the vast majority of EF3+ tornadoes in Monroe County have occurred during years that had snow.
The significant winter event across North MS and Monroe County was our first big January winter event since 2011. Not trying to compare or say this Spring will be like that, but based on what I've found/researched, it does indicate trouble ahead especially with the transitioning back to La Nina by Spring.
wx_guy
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Cool stuff, JPWX!
I'm growing more concerned about a severe Hail threat on Sunday in a narrow region of the eastern FL Panhandle / FL Big Bend showing up on the 18z GFS (we'll soon be able to see what this looks like on the NAM, in 12-18 hours). This sounding is from Apalachicola , FL in the Big Bend Sunday afternoon. Notice 1000+ CAPE, low-level Lapse Rates of nearly 9, SHIP of 0.8, a decent difference between wet-bulb temp and surface temperature, and a theta-e profile that shows steep theta-e changes in the lower levels...all this to me points out a scenario that could lend to 1-inch+ hailstones.
Playing with the parameters a bit, if we add +3 to the temperature and +6 to the dew points (not *entirely* unrealistic, since this is the afternoon, and depending on where the warm sector sets up), here's what the simulated sounding looks like:
That sounding is so much more conducive and could produce 2-inch+ hail (notice the extreme theta-e change with height, the 2000+ CAPE, and the 9.6 low-level lapse rates). Tornadoes and severe winds don't look particularly rough, but this definitely could produce a couple/few big hail producers if this forecast plays out. We'll see what the NAM shows tomorrow.
I'm growing more concerned about a severe Hail threat on Sunday in a narrow region of the eastern FL Panhandle / FL Big Bend showing up on the 18z GFS (we'll soon be able to see what this looks like on the NAM, in 12-18 hours). This sounding is from Apalachicola , FL in the Big Bend Sunday afternoon. Notice 1000+ CAPE, low-level Lapse Rates of nearly 9, SHIP of 0.8, a decent difference between wet-bulb temp and surface temperature, and a theta-e profile that shows steep theta-e changes in the lower levels...all this to me points out a scenario that could lend to 1-inch+ hailstones.
Playing with the parameters a bit, if we add +3 to the temperature and +6 to the dew points (not *entirely* unrealistic, since this is the afternoon, and depending on where the warm sector sets up), here's what the simulated sounding looks like:
That sounding is so much more conducive and could produce 2-inch+ hail (notice the extreme theta-e change with height, the 2000+ CAPE, and the 9.6 low-level lapse rates). Tornadoes and severe winds don't look particularly rough, but this definitely could produce a couple/few big hail producers if this forecast plays out. We'll see what the NAM shows tomorrow.
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wx_guy
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Hmm, after investigating more, there could be a very localized tornado risk also. Here's the Tallahassee sounding Sunday afternoon:
This is from the GFS, but if we go with 65 degrees (which is close to the Euro's forecast for that day), the sounding changes:
So as you can see, contrary to my previous post, a small spin-up threat may exist on Sunday.
It really depends, looks like, on where the low pressure eventually forms and sets up:
The places to the right of it in the warm sector may face a threat. But this would be a very targeted threat that would be very difficult for the SPC to prognosticate ahead of time. It'll be super interesting to watch the NAM soon (and RAP) and see how the low pressure evolves on them over the next 24-48 hours.
This is from the GFS, but if we go with 65 degrees (which is close to the Euro's forecast for that day), the sounding changes:
So as you can see, contrary to my previous post, a small spin-up threat may exist on Sunday.
It really depends, looks like, on where the low pressure eventually forms and sets up:
The places to the right of it in the warm sector may face a threat. But this would be a very targeted threat that would be very difficult for the SPC to prognosticate ahead of time. It'll be super interesting to watch the NAM soon (and RAP) and see how the low pressure evolves on them over the next 24-48 hours.
