Severe Weather 2024

[MichelleH]

So glad we have a basement now. We're hosting a watch party Saturday night for WWE Royal Rumble and I'm glad we have a place to go just in case, but man, the guys are going to be MAD if they miss any of it. Lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Saturday isn't looking half bad on the GFS! Not impressive parameters but I'll take it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A thread should be made soon I would think, give a few more consistent runs with the globals and then I would pop one, especially if the SPC guys put out a area

 

[wx_guy]

For Saturday, here's today's MMFS HazCast (from Andrew Brady) using machine learning AI. This would be enough for a Level 2 Slight risk.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

They did the thing Saturday has a 15% risk area for Alabama and Georgia!!!!

Storm Prediction Center May 29, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Made the thread for this event. Thread 'January 27th deep south severe wx' https://talkweather.com/threads/january-27th-deep-south-severe-wx.2229/

 

[KevinH]

Gunna try and go chasing or atleast setup at a area where I can see a long distance if there's anything on Saturday since I'm off work for once on a potential severe event lol. I really wanna see a tornado for once lol it's on my bucket list now my wife does as well.

Seems like the low pressure is slowly getting deeper each day of new runs

Wait…. You are MARRIED?!

I was today years old lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wait…. You are MARRIED?!

I was today years old lol

March 13th is my 3 year anniversary lol I've been married the entire time. I've been on this forum lol

 

[KevinH]

March 13th is my 3 year anniversary lol I've been married the entire time. I've been on this forum lol

I didn’t know HA!

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

I would like to chase, but not looking to promising. Uncle Ju Ju you got a fb?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I would like to chase, but not looking to promising. Uncle Ju Ju you got a fb?

I do not, I only have a Twitter

 

[Clancy]

CSU depicts severe probs today and Thursday.

 

[akt1985]

There is just enough instability today that there is a tornado warned storm east of McComb, Mississippi right now.

 

[Clancy]

Storm near Bay Springs is also a bit suspicious looking.

 

[Clancy]

SPC has drawn low-level probs northward for tomorrow.

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
LA/MS/AL...EXTREME SOUTHERN TN...WESTERN GA...FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Southeast on Thursday.

...Southeast...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
ArkLaTex region toward the Ohio Valley on Thursday. This shortwave
will likely be accompanied by a weak surface low, as a trailing
outflow-reinforced cold front sags southeastward across parts of
LA/MS/AL. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Thursday
morning near the front, with scattered morning storms also possible
farther east into parts of AL/TN, as rich low-level moisture
continues to advance gradually northward across the region.

Details remain unclear regarding convective evolution on Thursday,
but guidance generally suggests potential for an MCS to develop
overnight during the D1/Wednesday period, and then propagate
east-northeastward into Thursday morning. While there may be a
tendency for the cold front to undercut convection to some extent,
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear may support some organized
storm structures capable of producing locally damaging wind and/or a
brief tornado across parts of LA/MS into western AL.

With time, the ejecting shortwave will become increasingly displaced
from the effective warm sector, so the maintenance of organized
convection into Thursday afternoon remains uncertain. However, a few
stronger storms could persist into north AL and perhaps northwest
GA, with a continued threat of locally damaging wind and/or a brief
tornado. A nonzero severe threat could also accompany any stronger
pre-frontal convection, though the extent and favored location of
any such threat remains uncertain.

Late Thursday night, some redevelopment of convection will be
possible near the LA Gulf Coast. Any such development would likely
be somewhat elevated, but a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out
near the end of the forecast period near or just off of the LA
coast.

..Dean.. 01/24/2024

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good grief

WPC Met Watch

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looks like a couple of spin ups on MS/LA border

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Man the HRRR is wanting a impressive supercell moving through the bham metro in a few hours. With some good parameters.

 

[Clancy]

A SLGT corridor has been added to today's outlook for a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging winds in parts of AL and MS.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast
States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of
southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley...
A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this
morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the
preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud
cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend
to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of
line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will
continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting
thermodynamic factor.

Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically
supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough
over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight,
with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb
winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward
eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for
the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating
destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification
potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected
today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into
western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the
degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some
severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move
into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians
by late afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024

 

[MichelleH]

 

[JPWX]

New MPD out now