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@JPWX Do you have any reason in particular? Perhaps a -NAO? Long-range forecasts? Some of the models do seem to support your outlook.I'm more concerned about the Central Gulf Coast this season going forward than the East Coast. That is all.
Had to look up where that is, my vacated middle school geography bee trophies are gonna be displayed alongside Reggie Bush's Heisman nowModels have my attention in the long range period for potential tropical development north of the big islands in the Nares Plain region of the Atlantic.
Geez, you should find a way to dream about cool, sunny days more often!00z Euro Ensemble showing my dream back on April 23rd of a category 5 in the Gulf.
Before you say that's just a dream, I dreamed 10 years ago about the EF3 that hit Amory MS this past March. Few years prior to the Smithville MS EF5 tornado on April 27th 2011, I dreamed about a tornado going right in front of my house in Smithville on hwy 25 North. I lived right off the highway. Literally right in front of it.
Yes I've been told that. LOL!Geez, you should find a way to dream about cool, sunny days more often!
@JPWX Where in the Gulf, if I may ask? (To be fair, I think that your “vision” may end up being correct. I shall explain further shortly.)00z Euro Ensemble showing my dream back on April 23rd of a category 5 in the Gulf.
Eastern Gulf with just west of Mobile towards Tallahassee in the threat zone.@JPWX Where in the Gulf, if I may ask? (To be fair, I think that your “vision” may end up being correct. I shall explain further shortly.)
The central Gulf Coast in particular has seen two sub-950-mb landfalls since 2020, Laura and Ida, so that area hardly seems “due” for a third such impact. Additionally, the rest of the Gulf Coast has seen other sub-950-mb impacts such as Harvey/Irma (2017), Michael (2018), and last year’s Ian. Virtually the entire Gulf Coast has seen significant direct and/or indirect TC impacts since 2017. In terms of landfalls, only Greater Houston/Galveston and Tampa Bay have been comparatively spared, though Harvey flooded the former while making a distant landfall.
Did your dream suggest a long-tracking crossover, e.g., a major hurricane that crosses peninsular Florida first and enters the Gulf? If so, then maybe climatology would support some kind of high-end impact to metropolitan Southeastern FL and then Houston, TX. (For the sake of argument I am assuming here that something like this may transpire. If it were to do so, then climatology might suggest twin impacts, along the aforementioned lines.)
This is the same region that experienced 919-mb Cat-5 Michael only five years ago. Another C5 landfall in the same general region would be unprecedented. Besides Michael, only the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, 1969’s Camille, and 1992’s Andrew struck the CONUS as C5s, and none of these occurred within a few decades of each other, let alone five or fewer years. Moreover, only the hurricane of 1935 and Andrew struck the same general region, depending on whether one counts the Keys as part of the Gulf Coast or peninsular Florida.Eastern Gulf with just west of Mobile towards Tallahassee in the threat zone.