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2023 Tropical Weather

OHWX97

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There will be some exciting changes to the NHC's tropical weather outlooks for the upcoming hurricane season.
 
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Kinda surprised this hasn't been mentioned, but today, the Southern Hemisphere has set a new world record. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is now the longest lasting tropical cyclone on record surpassing Hurricane/Typhoon John of 1994.
WHAT

EDIT: Not yet it hasn't. John was 31 and tropical the whole time. Freddy needs to last to the 12th to steal the record.
 
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JBishopwx

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Depends on how you calculated it. If you count it when it was remnant low, yes it is. If you don't, it still has a few days to go. GFS supports it being a tropical system for the next few days
 

JPWX

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It's official. Freddy has an ACE of 83 becoming the highest ACE producing cyclone on record, surpassing Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke (2006) of 82.
 

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JPWX

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For those of you who keep a watch outside of the Atlantic basin, we are now on 78 consecutive days so far this year without the first tropical system and/or typhoon in the Western Pacific. The Top 13 years that have gone the longest without the first typhoon are: (from lowest to highest) 1954: 129 days, 1964: 132 days, 1952: 161 days, 1993: 165 days, 2013: 177 days, 2017: 181 days, 1984: 182 days, 2016: 183 days, 1973: 184 days, 1983: 190 days, 2010: 191 days, 1995: 196 days, 1977: 196 days, and 1998: 212 days. The top 3 years that have gone the longest without the first tropical system: (from lowest to highest): 1984: 158 days, 1983: 174 days, and 1998: 187 days. I do note that the JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) issued advisories for a short lived tropical depression near the equator earlier this month. However, the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) did not issue advisories on this depression at all and only designated it as Invest 98S since the agency analyzed the system as being in the Southern Hemisphere instead of in the South China Sea (Western Pacific region).
 
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One of the biggest impediments to active seasons in the tropical Atlantic since 2012 has been the long-term -AMM trend. Specifically much of this seems to be related to global warming via freshwater ice-melt that results in a weaker ATC, allowing the warmest SST anomalies to concentrate in the subtropics (Newfoundland warm pool) rather than the MDR and/or Caribbean. The following data show just how the subtropical North Atlantic has warmed up much faster than the deep tropics, resulting in increased stability and anticyclonic wave-breaking that has tempered most seasons recently, aside from 2017 and 2020. While the entire North-Pacific basin, like the subtropical North Atlantic, has generally warmed since 2012, the tropical Atlantic has actually cooled slightly. If this is all related to climate change, then the Atlantic will struggle to produce high-ACE seasons as well as it did from 1995–2022, with or without +ENSO.

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JPWX

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The Western Pacific has now reached 100 days without the first typhoon this year. Still have a ways to go before reaching the Top 13 years where it took longer. Those years are: (going from lowest to highest) 13: 1954 at 129 days, 12: 1964 at 132 days, 11: 1952 at 161 days, 10: 1993 at 165 days, 9: 2013 at 177 days, 8: 2017 at 181 days, 7: 1984 at 182 days, 6: 2016 at 183 days, 5: 1973 at 184 days, 4: 1983 at 190 days, 3: 2010 at 191 days, 2: 1995 at 196 days, and 1: 1998 at 212 days.
 
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